NFL MVP Odds: Favorites Allen, Jackson Keep Cooking; Burrow's Quest Derailed by Injury

In Week 2, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson consolidated their position as the MVP favorites while Joe Burrow could be out for months with a toe injury.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 14, 2025 10:32 PM EDT • 5 minute read

NFL MVP Odds: MVP Favorites Allen, Jackson Pull Ahead; Burrow Injury Derails Hopes — Pictured: Lamar Jackson looks to make a pass during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Photo by Peter Casey via Imagn Images

The more things change, the more they stay the same for NFL MVP odds favorites Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who ran roughshod over the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns, respectively.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow's quest for his first MVP was derailed after suffering a turf toe injury that could keep him out of the lineup for three months. That injury blow will alter MVP futures NFL picks for countless bettors as we dive into the most notable takeaways in the MVP odds race from NFL Week 2 action.

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📈 Week 2 MVP key takeaways

Josh Allen remains the NFL MVP odds favorite (+320) despite not accounting for a TD, with his odds shortening marginally from +380.
Lamar Jackson has the second-best MVP odds, which shortened from +550 to +400 after tossing four TD passes against the Cleveland Browns.
Joe Burrow's odds fell off a cliff, dropping from +600 to +5000, after suffering a toe injury against Jacksonville.
Jordan Love, who has the fifth-best offense grade at PFF (86.7), features the third-best MVP odds (+900).
Dak Prescott's MVP odds improved to +2500 after his 343-yard, 2 TD performance in a wild 40-37 win over the New York Giants.
Jayden Daniels' MVP odds (+1200) decreased slightly from +1000 after the Washington Commanders' Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers.
Jalen Hurts' odds decreased from +1400 to +2000 despite the Philadelphia Eagles' 20-17 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Two-time MVP winner Patrick Mahomes saw his odds drop from +650 to +2000 after throwing for just 173 yards and one interception.
Daniel Jones saw his MVP odds soar from +12500 to +5000 after leading the Indianapolis Colts to a comeback victory over the Denver Broncos. That performance will also likely improve his stock as one of the most clutch QBs through two weeks.
Jared Goff's MVP odds rose to +4000 after throwing five TD passes in the Detroit Lions' 52-21 win over the Chicago Bears.

🐯 Joe Burrow's MVP odds take major hit

NFL MVP Odds: MVP Favorites Allen, Jackson a Class Above the Rest; Burrow Suffers Injury Blow — Pictured: Joe Burrow is assisted to the locker room after suffering a toe injury against Jacksonville. Photo by Sam Greene via Imagn Images

Turn away if you're a Cincinnati Bengals fan. The recurring nightmare has returned, with Burrow suffering yet another early-season injury. Only Jackson and Allen had shorter MVP odds before the Bengals' franchise QB went down early in the Week 2 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The injury blow has also significantly altered the Bengals' Super Bowl odds. He hobbled off the field, seen on a crutch and a walking boot after being diagnosed with turf toe. If it requires surgery, it could sideline him for at least three months.

Burrow is in his sixth season as a pro. He's already suffered the following injuries since his rookie season: torn ACL, PCL, MCL and meniscus (2020), dislocated finger (2021), MCL sprain (2022), calf strain (2023), torn wrist ligament (2024), and turf toe (2025).

When the dust settled, his +600 odds plummeted to +5000. I'm sure I don't have to tell you those odds (1.96% implied win probability) offer about as much value as buying a house at 10 times its market value.

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🦬 Josh Allen, Bills (+320)

Speaking of injuries, Bills fans held their breath when Allen popped up from the MetLife turf, waving frantically to the sideline. You could hear a collective exhale from Bills Mafia when Allen, who suffered a nosebleed after getting hit in the face, was medically cleared and returned to the game minutes later.

That was the only uncomfortable moment for Allen, who had the game sewn up by halftime. While the reigning MVP's stats won't pop off the page (148 passing yards, 0 TDs, 0 interceptions, and 59 rushing yards), he was in complete control throughout.

His lead over Jackson, however, decreased after the Ravens' QB put on a show against Cleveland.

🐦‍⬛ Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+400)

Myles Garrett and Co. made life uncomfortable at times for the two-time MVP winner, sacking Jackson three times. While Jackson didn't rack up yards in the air (197 passing yards) or on the ground (13 yards), he tossed four TD passes, making it seven in two games (six passing, one rushing).

If Jackson continues at this absurd pace, he'll end the season with 60 TDs - 15 more than last season. That would be four more than Peyton Manning's record of 56, which he set in 2013.

He doesn't get to face Cleveland and Buffalo's defenses every week, making that thought seem whimsical. Jackson is now the all-time leader in passer rating (102.65) and rushing yards as a QB. So, maybe not such a whimsical notion, after all.

As it was to end last season, Jackson is in such hot pursuit of Allen and could clip his heels.

❓ NFL MVP FAQs

Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is the MVP odds favorite (+320). Those odds represent an implied probability of 23.81%, according to our odds converter.

When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?

The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.

Who was the NFL MVP last year?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.

Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?

Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work and NFL experience has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.