NFL MVP Odds 2025: Who Should You Bet Entering Week 1?

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were locked in one of the best MVP races in NFL history last season. So it comes as no surprise to see those two among the favorites by the NFL MVP odds ahead of Week 1.

Jackson is the favorite by the preseason NFL MVP odds after the two-time MVP posted the best season of his career last year in a second-place effort. Most NFL betting sites have Allen second, though Joe Burrow owns that spot at some shops with Patrick Mahomes closely behind that star-studded trio.

Which quarterback should you include in your NFL picks to win the award? We're breaking down the latest NFL MVP odds favorites, best bets, and long shots ahead of Week 1.

📊 NFL MVP odds 2025-26

Live NFL odds to win the MVP award; updated in real time.

🏆 NFL MVP betting favorites entering Week 1

Check out all of our NFL coverage ahead of Week 1, including our best bets and expert picks for every top matchup.

🐦‍⬛ Lamar Jackson (+550)

Jackson won MVP honors in two of his first three fully healthy seasons of his career. Then he threw for a career-high 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns while leading the league in QBR (77.3) and passer rating (119.6) for an offense that profiled as one of the most efficient of all time.

The fact that Jackson - who was named first-team All-Pro for the second straight season - didn't take home his third MVP trophy is still shocking all these months later, but I suspect voters won't make the same mistake twice if Jackson has the most impressive statistical case by season's end.

It helps that he plays for the early favorite by the Super Bowl odds entering Week 1 and will have plenty of prime-time opportunities to make his case - starting with a Week 1 matchup with Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football.

If he gets off to a hot start, these +550 odds at Caesars - which carry an implied probability of 15.38% with a $55 profit on a $10 bet - could look like a steal in hindsight.

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🐯 Joe Burrow (+600)

If the Bengals' defense was remotely better last season, there's a chance Burrow would have won his first MVP award after leading all passers with a staggering 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns while completing 70.6% of his passes - tied for the 10th-best mark in NFL history.

Unfortunately, Cincinnati couldn't stop a nose bleed and squandered a handful of masterful performances from its former No. 1 pick, who played all 17 games and finished fourth in MVP for a team that ultimately missed the playoffs.

If the Bengals can bounce back with a new defensive coordinator in Al Golden, Burrow could have the statistical profile and narrative case on his side. That's why his odds are no better than +600 across the best sports betting sites, including BetMGM, where a $10 bet would return a $60 profit.

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🦬 Josh Allen (+650)

Allen is the reigning MVP coming off a season in which he threw 28 touchdowns to just six interceptions - a whopping 12 fewer miscues than the season prior - while leading the Bills to a 13-win campaign and AFC title berth.

So, with that as the backdrop, it's easy to understand why Allen enters this year with such short odds to repeat as MVP, which has happened just once in the last 15 years. Yet the narrative momentum that helped him capture the award for the first time last year will be working against him this time around.

It won't matter if he puts forth a truly dominant effort for an offense that appears better on paper in 2025. That's why his odds are as short as +500 via FanDuel, though you can find much better value with these +650 odds at ESPN BET, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $65 profit.

🔴 Patrick Mahomes (+700)

It wasn't long ago that Mahomes was coming off his second MVP campaign in five years - throwing for at least 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in both seasons - and looked like a lock to add to that total in short order. 

Then his numbers fell off dramatically over the last two seasons as the Chiefs' offense struggled to generate the explosive plays that helped fuel his rise to the NFL's top tier early in his career. That has coincided with Travis Kelce's decline as a top target in the regular season, even if he tends to find an extra gear for the postseason.

All of that makes it tough to know what to expect from Mahomes this season, though he's arguably still the most talented quarterback in the league - and maybe of all time. That makes it worth considering a bet at these outlier +700 odds via DraftKings, which would pay $70 in profit on a $10 wager.

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💰 Best bet to win NFL MVP entering Week 1

🧀 Jordan Love (+2000)

Who else could it be? Love has been on an elite trajectory ever since he took over as the full-time starter two years ago, and he proved himself as one of the best passers last season even with a receiving corps plagued by drops.

The Packers were aggressive in helping their star passer this offseason by drafting Matthew Golden (first) and Savion Williams (third) in the early rounds, and they made the ultimate bet on this season by trading for Micah Parsons one week before the start of the NFL season.

If this team wins 12-plus games and wrestles the NFC North title away from the Detroit Lions, that should provide plenty of narrative fodder to supplement what should be an electric highlight reel for Love and this offense. With his price as short as +1600 at FanDuel, it's hard to find a better value across any NFL prop betting sites than these +2000 odds via Caesars.

🌟 More MVP contenders & long shots in 2025

• Jalen Hurts (+2000): I know his game isn't flashy, but it still surprises me that Hurts is so disrespected in the MVP market every season. He's a virtual lock for double-digit touchdowns on the ground while helming one of the best offenses in football with an elite receiving corps and O-line. Hurts finished second for MVP in 2022; he's worth a flier at these odds.
• Justin Herbert (+2200): Herbert is one of the best pure passers in football, but injuries and a shaky supporting cast have kept him out of serious MVP conversations over the years. Don't let that trick you into thinking he lacks the talent to put up 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns for a potential division winner.
• C.J. Stroud (+2500): Stroud was a bona fide MVP candidate as a rookie two years ago, finishing eighth in the award while leading the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9). He took a major step back last year amid injuries to his receiving corps, but that could spell major value on this discounted price entering an all-important third season in Houston.
• Brock Purdy (+3000): Remember when Purdy was the clear favorite to win MVP two years ago before Jackson stole the award in the final weeks? That feels like a distant memory for the 49ers passer after a frustrating season last year, though he still has the weapons to make some noise in San Francisco.
• Matthew Stafford (+4000): The outlook is potentially as murky as ever for Stafford, who enters his age-37 season with lingering back issues that cloud his Week 1 status. That said, I'm not sure the Rams gunslinger should ever be priced at 40/1 given how well he's played of late - he finished eighth in MVP voting in 2023 and posted an even better QBR last season.
• Jared Goff (+4000): Ben Johnson is gone as the offensive coordinator for the Lions. That should mean a major step back for Goff in Detroit. But what if it doesn't? Johnson's presence was arguably the biggest factor working against Goff in prior MVP races, but another prolific season from the former No. 1 pick in a "new offense" could finally justify his production for voters.

❓NFL MVP odds FAQs

Who is favored to win NFL MVP in 2025?

Lamar Jackson is the NFL MVP favorite with +550 odds to win the award. Those odds imply a 15.38% probability while paying a $55 profit on a $10 bet if he wins MVP for the third time in his career, according to our odds converter.

What is the best bet to win NFL MVP?

Jordan Love is the best bet to win MVP with +2000 odds entering his third season as a full-time starter for the Green Bay Packers. Those odds would turn a $10 bet into a $200 profit if Love wins his first MVP award.

Who won NFL MVP last year?

Josh Allen won NFL MVP last season for the first time in his career, beating out Lamar Jackson in one of the closest races in league history.

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