NFL MVP Odds: Allen, Jackson Dominate in Week 1; Rodgers Excels in Steelers' Debut as Long Shot

If you get the distinct impression that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will be the focal points of another unforgettable NFL MVP odds race, you're not alone. 

Last season's MVP winner and runner-up put on a show in Buffalo, with Allen getting the better of Jackson again in a thrilling 41-40 win in NFL Week 1. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock against his former team and Daniel Jones set an unlikely record in his Indianapolis Colts debut to impress as intriguing NFL picks at long-shot odds.

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🏆 NFL MVP odds favorites

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🦬 Josh Allen, Bills (+380)

Allen has become accustomed to spoiling Jackson's party. He did so last season by winning the MVP by the thinnest of margins. He also scuppered Jackson's Super Bowl chances in last season's divisional round.

And now, he's done it in Week 1. 

Deep into the fourth quarter, the Bills' gunslinger was not the MVP odds favorite. Jackson was the +380 favorite, with Allen receiving the second-shortest odds (+550) before mounting a miracle comeback. Even though the contest looked out of reach, he never appeared fazed.

It was the first time since 1967 that the Bills overturned a 15-plus point deficit entering the fourth quarter. Allen didn't have a fourth-quarter comeback last season, but it didn't take him long to get his first in 2025, which will significantly help his Clutch Factor rating entering Week 2. 

Allen finished with 394 passing yards and four TDs (two passing and two rushing) to shorten his odds to repeat as MVP. Along with starting 1-0 and spearheading his team to the top of the Super Bowl odds leaderboard, Allen also leapfrogged Jackson as the MVP odds favorite.

🐦‍⬛ Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+550)

If, for some reason, you had trouble believing Jackson isn't from this planet, you must realize it now.

Jackson took full advantage of a youthful and inexperienced Bills defense, scoring three TDs (two passing, one rushing). He added 70 rushing yards to his 209 passing yards and was in complete control until the start of the fourth quarter.

The loss to the Bills had nothing to do with his performance. He was almost perfect throughout. Unfortunately, almost perfect isn't good enough against an Allen-led Bills in Buffalo. 

While we're only just getting into the 2025 season, Week 1 looked like a precursor to another Allen vs. Jackson MVP duel.

🎯 Rodgers, Jones make statements as MVP long shots

Check out our NFL prop betting sites for the best MVP long-shot odds.

🏗️ Aaron Rodgers, Steelers (+5000)

While I doubt the Jets regret their decision to cast Rodgers aside, the four-time MVP winner made an emphatic statement in his Steelers' debut.

It was the 28th time he has thrown four TD passes and no interceptions, tying him with Tom Brady for the most in NFL history. The 41-year-old signal-caller diced up his former defense, and it's a good thing he did, as the Steelers were poor defensively and on the ground.

Rodgers threw four TD passes in his final game with the Jets last season, the only time he did so as a member of Gang Green. However, it came against the Miami Dolphins in a meaningless Week 18 encounter.  

A Week 1 aerial bombardment is an altogether different scenario. And at least for a week, everyone can whimsically discuss whether the older-than-time quarterback can sustain that elite level and tie Payton Manning by winning a fifth MVP award. 

Do I think he can? Absolutely not. But it's a heck of an intriguing and compelling narrative to kick off the 2025 campaign.

🐴 Daniel Jones, Colts (+12500)

Not to be outdone, Jones sizzled in his Colts' regular-season debut against a college-like Dolphins defense. Jones became the first quarterback since at least 2000 to score on every possession.

No, that's not a typo. Even the legendary Payton Manning didn't achieve that particular feat.

Jones led the Colts to 33 points on seven possessions (four field goals, three TDs). He finished 22-for-29 for 272 passing yards and one TD. More importantly, he confidently showcased why Shane Steichen selected him as the team's QB1. 

He is also the quarterback responsible for breaking the Colts' 11-game winless streak (0-10-1) in season openers. 

Admittedly, Miami's defense was almost as poor as its offense, but take nothing away from Jones' composure in the pocket. He'll have fans wondering whether the Colts have a chance to make some noise in a comparatively mediocre AFC South. 

Despite his implied probability of winning MVP doubling after Week 1, it still stands at a measly 0.79%.

❓ NFL MVP FAQs

Who is the favorite to win NFL MVP?

The Buffalo Bills Josh Allen is the MVP odds favorite (+380). Those odds represent an implied probability of 20.83%, according to our odds converter.

What were Aaron Rodgers' opening MVP odds?

Aaron Rodgers' NFL MVP odds opened at +7500 at BetMGM. He is now dealing at +5000 odds to win his fifth MVP award.

When will the 2025-26 NFL MVP be announced?

The 2025-26 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2026 Super Bowl at NFL Honors.

Who was the NFL MVP last year?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was crowned the NFL MVP for the first time after closing as the betting favorite in the regular season.

Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?

Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.  

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