NFL Moneyline Picks Week 1: Best Bets to Win Every Game This Week

Week 1 of the NFL season always brings plenty of uncertainty, but that also brings plenty of opportunities I can exploit with my NFL moneyline picks.

I’m eyeing three such opportunities in my NFL football predictions for Week 1, including backing the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Los Angeles Chargers for an eighth straight time Friday night in Brazil. Two moneyline underdogs round out my Week 1 NFL picks on Sunday’s card.

🏈 NFL moneyline picks: Week 1

NFL moneyline picks based on the latest NFL odds and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

💰 My best Week 1 moneyline picks

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🔴 Chiefs (-175) vs. Chargers ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Any time you get a chance to back the Chiefs in this price range, they’re worth a serious look. Kansas City has won and covered 10 of its last 12 games when it isn’t favored by more than a field goal, excluding a meaningless late-season loss last year at the Denver Broncos when the Chiefs sat most of their starters.

The Chargers are all too familiar with the Chiefs' ability to pull out tight games. Although six of the last seven meetings between these division rivals have been decided by a single possession, Kansas City has won them all, extending a dominant run that has seen the Chiefs win 19 of their last 22 against their divisional rival.

Patrick Mahomes also has a history of showing out in season openers, posting a 21:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in seven Week 1 games.

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🏴‍☠️ Raiders (+125) vs. Patriots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The arrival of head coach Mike Vrabel has generated plenty of optimism in New England, where the Patriots are projected to be the Buffalo Bills’ top challenger in the AFC East after finishing last in the division a year ago.

But don’t overlook the fact that the Raiders should be much improved under a new head coach as well. Even at 73 years of age, Pete Carroll should bring plenty of energy to the Silver and Black, especially with quarterback Geno Smith now in town. The best seasons of Smith’s career came under Carroll with the Seattle Seahawks, including a 2022 campaign in which Smith led the league in completion percentage and threw 30 touchdown passes.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye may have a higher long-term ceiling than Smith, but it hasn't been realized yet.. New England also struggled to protect him last year, allowing the fifth-most sacks in the NFL, which could spell trouble against a fierce Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby.

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🐶 Browns (+200) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐

The Bengals’ slow starts under head coach Zac Taylor (1-11 in their last Week 1 and 2 games) are well documented, and the team changed up its approach this fall - including playing Joe Burrow and other starters in the preseason. However, a different approach doesn’t necessarily mean Cincy’s early-season struggles will magically be over. If anything, the emphasis on a strong start puts considerable pressure on the Bengals in this spot.

Not much is expected of the Browns this year, but they should at least bring plenty of enthusiasm to the field in their season opener, especially against their in-state division rival. Cleveland has given Burrow plenty of problems throughout his career, winning five of eight matchups and limiting him to an 86.8 passer rating in four games at Huntington Bank Field.

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❓ NFL moneyline picks FAQs

What are the best NFL moneyline picks this week?

My best NFL moneyline picks this week feature a Chiefs (-175) team getting a good price to open the season with a win, and two underdogs - the Raiders (+125) and Browns (+200) - who could surprise on Sunday.

What does the moneyline mean in NFL?

The "moneyline" in the NFL is for betting on a team to win outright, and the return on your bet is determined by the moneyline odds - which are calculated based on the return for a $100 bet. For example, if a team has moneyline odds of +120, then a $100 bet would return a $120 profit. Conversely, if a team has moneyline odds of -120, then a $120 bet would return a $100 profit.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.  

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