Jets vs. Patriots Prediction Tonight: Thursday Night Football Odds & Betting Preview
My Jets vs. Patriots prediction tonight breaks down the Thursday Night Football matchup between AFC East rivals, with the New England Patriots priced as a 13.5-point betting favorite over the visiting New York Jets.
Along with backing the Over, my NFL predictions for Week 11 see value in fading Drake Maye's passing yardage total. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. (Prime Video).
✅ Jets vs. Patriots prediction & expert picks
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 11.
💵 Best Jets vs. Patriots bets
- Game prediction: Jets +13.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 43 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Jets vs. Patriots odds tonight
See live NFL odds for every game in Week 11.
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🏈 Jets vs. Patriots Night Football preview & score prediction
It's going to be a chilly, blustery evening in Foxborough, but neither defense has been particularly good lately, and the 13.5-point spread, which has increased from 10.5, is too large for my liking. That leaves the Over.
Twelve of the previous 16 Jets' games hit the Over, somewhat surprisingly. Meanwhile, the Patriots' previous five games went Over the 43.5-point threshold. The Jets will officially be without star wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who has been ruled out due to a knee injury.
With the NFL MVP odds co-favorite and one of the most clutch QBs under center, the Patriots' offense is humming, scoring at least 28 points in three of the previous four games. That unit ranks ninth in terms of DVOA and eighth in EPA per play. And they're playing a defense that has allowed 31.3 points per road game.
New England's defense, meanwhile, ranks fourth-worst in DVOA and worst in the red zone, allowing a TD on 74% of opponents' possessions. That provides hope for a Jets team that, despite having the fourth-worst offensive DVOA, averages 21.7 points per game.
If both teams combine for at least 44 points, you'll earn $9.09 on a winning $10 bet. If they combine for 43 points, you'll get your deposit back with no profit or loss.
Our Esten McLaren has his tight end contributing to the Jets' cover with his anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Score prediction: Patriots 28, Jets 17
💡 More Week 11 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 11.
🆚 Key matchup to watch on TNF
Drake Maye vs. Jets defense
Maye has hit the Over on this total in five of the previous six games, including the last three. However, the cold and windy conditions at Gillette Stadium won't be conducive to a highly productive evening through the air.
The Jets' pass defense hasn't allowed more than 236 passing yards all season, with 236 against Dak Prescott in Week 5 their worst day. The Jets allow 190.8 passing yards per game, the eighth-fewest.
I also think the Patriots will be able to manage the clock in the fourth quarter with the lead, limiting the number of late passes.
The total at the best sports betting apps ranges from 238.5 to 241.5, with FanDuel offering the highest total. Despite offering the highest total, FanDuel's -114 odds provide better value than Caesars and BetMGM odds at lower totals. The -114 odds will yield an $8.77 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Best prop bet: Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Jets vs. Patriots betting trends
| Jets | Statistic | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 2-7 | W-L record | 8-2 |
| 5-4 | ATS record | 7-3 |
| 6-3 | O/U record | 6-4 |
| 4.8 | Yards per play | 5.9 |
| 5.3 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| -1.1 | Turnover margin | -0.1 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 27-20 Browns | Previous result | W, 28-23 vs. Buccaneers |
👀 Jets vs. Patriots betting insights
Betting insights courtesy of BetMGM.
| Most bet player props | Most bet players to score a TD | Most bet players to score 1st TD |
|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall Under 16.5 rushing attempts | DeMario Douglas (+475) | TreVeyon Henderson (+390) |
| Drake Maye Over 5.5 rushing attempts | Hunter Henry (+165) | Stefon Diggs (+700) |
| Drake Maye Over 23.5 rushing yards | Stefon Diggs (+135) | DeMario Douglas (+2000) |
| TreVeyon Henderson Over 78.5 rushing yards | Mack Hollins (+280) | Hunter Henry (+800) |
| Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions made | NE D/ST (+500) | Drake Maye (+1000) |
🚑 Jets vs. Patriots injury report
🌤️ Jets vs. Patriots weather tonight
It will be partly cloudy and about 37 degrees at kickoff, with winds gusting from 16 mph to 24 mph. The wind chill will make it feel like 23 degrees, and the humidity will be around 77%.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Patriots
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: Prime Video
💡 More MNF predictions & picks
- Jets vs. Patriots prediction
- Jets vs. Patriots player props
- Jets vs. Patriots same-game parlay
- Drake Maye player prop bets
- Jets vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Jets vs. Patriots first touchdown scorer predictions
- Jets vs. Patriots AI predictions
- Jets vs. Patriots weather report
- Jets vs. Patriots betting report
- Jets vs. Patriots expert picks
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