Early Jets vs. Patriots Prediction & Opening Odds for Thursday Night Football: NFL Week 11
The New York Jets and New England Patriots will square off for the first time this season to kick off NFL Week 11, and my Jets vs. Patriots prediction for Thursday Night Football backs the home betting favorite to cover the double-digit spread.
The Patriots are the 10.5 to 11.5-point betting favorite, and, as one of the best teams against the spread, I expect them to wear out a Jets team that has major issues on the offensive side of the ball. Thursday's game from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., starts at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). This TNF analysis is part of our NFL Week 11 predictions.
🏈 Early Jets vs. Patriots prediction & betting preview
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 11.
🪖 Patriots -10.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The 10.5-point spread by the NFL Week 11 odds is admittedly higher than anyone backing the betting favorite wants to see. However, I can't get behind a New York Jets team that mustered 187 yards of total offense against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, escaping with a victory thanks largely to scoring 14 points off two kick returns.
Justin Fields had a measly 54 passing yards on six completions. No, that's not a typo. The embattled QB will be forced to air it out more against a Patriots defense that hasn't allowed more than 100 rushing yards since Week 5 in Buffalo.
They're also on the road, facing a markedly better offense than the Browns. Led by MVP odds co-favorite Drake Maye, the Patriots had the 10th-best offensive DVOA before accumulating 436 yards in Tampa against the NFC South-leading Buccaneers.
The Jets defense blitzes at the eighth-highest rate (26.9%), music to Maye's ears. The Patriots QB is one of the best at dealing with pressure. In the first half against the Buccaneers' blitz, Maye was 4-for-5 with 120 passing yards, a TD pass, and a 158.3 rating.
Gang Green rode their luck in the last two weeks, helping them pull off back-to-back victories as underdogs. I expect that good fortune to end in Foxborough against a team with seven straight wins and a 7-3 ATS record.
bet365, one of three remaining best sports betting sites offering a spread of -10.5, provides the best value (-110), where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
💡 More Week 11 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 11.
📊 Live Jets vs. Patriots odds: Week 11
See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 11.
🔢 Jets vs. Patriots opening odds
- Moneyline: Jets +180 | Patriots -220
- Spread: Jets +9.5 (-112) | Patriots -9.5 (-123)
- Over/Under: Over 46 (-101) | Under 46 (-115)
↔️ Jets vs. Patriots line movement
The spread has increased to -11.5 at DraftKings, which is offering -105 odds for New England to cover. Meanwhile, the 10.5-point spread at BetMGM is juiced to -120 for the Patriots. Both examples are indications that the line will likely sit at -11 or -11.5 at kickoff.
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📈 Jets vs. Patriots trends & betting notes: TNF
- The Patriots have the second-best ATS record (7-3)
- The Jets are 5-4 ATS
- New England is 2-3 ATS at home
- The Jets are 2-1 ATS on the road
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📺 How to watch Jets vs. Patriots: Thursday Night Football
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 13
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
- TV: Prime Video
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