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Jakobi Meyers of the New England Patriots runs with the ball as Lamarcus Joyner of the New York Jets defends at MetLife Stadium on Oct. 30, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Jakobi Meyers of the New England Patriots runs with the ball as Lamarcus Joyner of the New York Jets defends at MetLife Stadium on Oct. 30, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images via AFP.

An important battle in the AFC East race takes place Sunday when the New York Jets visit the rival New England Patriots. We offer up our top Week 11 picks as the 5-4 Patriots host the 6-3 Jets.

The AFC East is usually top-heavy, but the entire division has been absolutely rolling this season. All four teams have a winning percentage of at least .556, and both the Jets and Patriots won four of their last five games. The statistical similarities between these two squads are uncanny, setting up what should be a close contest.

Oddly enough, New York has a location advantage in this one – given their 4-0 road record while New England is only 2-2 at home. Frankly, the Jets will cling to any positive narratives as the Pats won their last 13 between these two – including six season-series sweeps. If New England prevails in their 14th straight game against New York, it'll be the NFL's longest active streak of that nature. 

Here are our top Jets-Patriots Week 11 NFL picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 11.

Jets vs. Patriots Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
  • Weather: 39 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, 12-mph winds

Jets vs. Patriots Odds

Jets vs. Patriots Odds Analysis

The total opened at 39.5 before dropping to 38, where it sits now. The Over is drawing 57% of the cash and 55% of the tickets. Those betting the Under should take advantage of the current odds at FanDuel.

The Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the spread has since fallen to Pats -3.5. Roughly 51% of the cash and 55% of the tickets are on the Patriots to cover.

Jets vs. Patriots Picks

  • Moneyline: Jets (+148 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 38.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ★★★★★
  • Prop: Jakobi Meyers anytime touchdown scorer (+230 via DraftKings) ★★★★★

Jets vs. Patriots ATS Pick

Jets (+148) ★★★★

Counting on the Jets to slay their demons may seem risky, but there’s a lot to like about taking them as underdogs. New York quarterback Zach Wilson threw for 355 passing yards and two touchdowns when these teams last met, both courtesy of tight end Tyler Conklin – who made six receptions for 79 yards. Jets wideout Garrett Wilson also caught the ball six times, for 115 yards, and could have another big day.

Last week’s 20-17 win over the Buffalo Bills gave New York some momentum. Wilson only threw 25 times in that contest, proving the Jets don’t need to air the ball out to find success. Convincing recent victories against the Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers also show that this team is for real. Their Week 8 loss to the Pats is more an outlier than an indication of how the Jets have played this season. They’ll be more-than-motivated to get revenge, and have the talent to do it.

Jets vs. Patriots O/U Pick

Under 38.5 (-115) ★★★★★

This game will likely be both close and action-packed, but don’t expect a shootout. Both teams rank in the top-10 in average opponent points allowed, and score at fairly average rates. New York’s star corner tandem of D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner (who will likely win DROY) have locked down offenses all season long, and that should continue against the Pats’ pedestrian passing game.

Weather is another factor to consider. Winds are expected to reach up to 12 mph, and New England showed they have no problem keeping the ball on the ground during last year’s wind game against the Bills on MNF – where Pats quarterback Mac Jones only had three pass attempts. There are simply far more avenues heading towards the Under.

Jets vs. Patriots Prop Pick

Meyers anytime TD scorer (+230) ★★★★★

There hasn’t been much to write home about with New England’s receiving corps, but wideout Jakobi Meyers has been a silver lining. The 26-year-old receiver is pacing the passing offense with 40 receptions, 457 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. After getting just one TD in his first four games, he’s now caught two of his last three.

In Week 8 against the Jets, Meyers had nine catches on 13 targets for 60 yards and the score. New York may have an elite passing D, but Meyers’ score from last time proves its possibility – especially since the volume will undoubtedly be there. At such favorable odds, it’s a great prop to take a swing on.

Where to Bet on Jets vs. Patriots Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Jets-Patriots picks made 11/17/2022 at 4:49 p.m. ET