Giants vs. Patriots Prediction & Odds for Monday Night Football: NFL Week 13 Betting Preview

Jaxson Dart returns to the lineup for Monday Night Football, as I back the visitors to prevent the home betting favorite from breaking things open in my Giants vs. Patriots prediction.

The Patriots are the 7 or 7.5-point betting favorite for the game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. (8:15 p.m., ESPN). As part of the NFL Week 13 predictions, I've also featured a TreVeyon Henderson player prop. 

✅ Giants vs. Patriots prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.

🏈 Monday Night Football preview & score prediction

The Giants have the second-worst record (2-10), only behind the lowly Tennessee Titans (1-10). However, they are tied for the seventh-best against-the-spread (ATS) record (7-5). They are 3-0 ATS in the previous three games and have a respectable 4-3 ATS road record. 

In the last nine games, the G-Men lost by at least eight points only three times. Jameis Winston performed admirably in Dart's absence, pushing the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to the brink.

Winston will now give way to Dart, who has cleared concussion protocol. The G-Men would have almost assuredly beaten Chicago in Week 10 had Dart remained in the game, with Russell Wilson finding a way to bottle it. 

While the Patriots have won a league-best nine in a row, they won three of four by six points or fewer, covering twice. Mike Vrabel's team failed to cover last week in Cincinnati despite facing an injury-riddled Bengals team that was without Trey Hendrickson, Ja'Marr Chase, and, at least for most of the fourth quarter, Tee Higgins. 

With their bye week on the horizon, it could also represent a letdown spot for the Patriots. Three of the five best sports betting sites have the line at +7.5, with DraftKings' -115 odds representing the best value. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.70 profit.

Our Brenden Schaeffer is also riding with the Giants to cover in his early Giants vs. Patriots prediction.

Score prediction: Giants 24, Patriots 21

🆚 Key matchup to watch on MNF

TreVeyon Henderson vs. Giants' defense

Henderson hit the Over on this total in four of the previous five games. It helped that Rhamondre Stevenson, who returned to the lineup last week against Cincy, only played in two of those games. 

I don't expect the Patriots to change their game plan much with Stevenson back, given how effective and productive Henderson has been. Henderson should be buoyed by the proposition of playing the league's worst rush defense.

The Giants are at the bottom in DVOA, yards per game (157.2), and yards per attempt (5.9), the last of which isn't particularly close with the second-last Buffalo Bills coughing up 5.3. 

Two of the best sports betting apps offer the lowest total (60.5 yards), with bet365 providing the best value (-111). Those odds imply a 52.61% likelihood, and a winning $10 bet would profit $9.01. 

Best prop bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)

📊 Giants vs. Patriots odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 13.

📈 Giants vs. Patriots betting trends

🚑 Giants vs. Patriots injury report

🌤️ Giants vs. Patriots weather

It's going to be a cold winter's night in Foxborough, with the temperature at 27 degrees at kickoff. While freezing, wind shouldn't be an issue, with gusts reaching just 4 mph. The conditions will be dry, with no snow in the forecast until Tuesday. 

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Giants vs. Patriots

• Date: Monday, Dec. 1
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: ESPN