Giants vs. Patriots Prediction for Monday Night Football: MNF Picks & Odds Tonight

My Giants vs. Patriots prediction for Week 13 Monday Night Football answers the most important question surrounding this game: whether the return of QB Jaxson Dart actually makes a difference to whether the Giants can keep the game close. The action from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., starts at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

My NFL Week 13 predictions look at whether the Patriots can cover as a 7-point betting favorite, and also hook you up with a player prop featuring one of their young stars. 

Giants vs. Patriots predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 13.

Monday Night Football best bet & score prediction

The Giants have the second-worst record (2-10), only behind the lowly Tennessee Titans (1-10). However, they are tied for the seventh-best against-the-spread (ATS) record (7-5). They are 3-0 ATS in the previous three games and have a respectable 4-3 ATS road record. 

In the last nine games, the G-Men lost by at least eight points only three times. Jameis Winston performed admirably in Dart's absence, pushing the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to the brink.

Winston will now give way to Dart, who has cleared concussion protocol. The G-Men would have almost assuredly beaten Chicago in Week 10 had Dart remained in the game, with Russell Wilson finding a way to bottle it. 

While the Patriots have won a league-best nine in a row, they won three of four by six points or fewer, covering twice. Mike Vrabel's team failed to cover last week in Cincinnati despite facing an injury-riddled Bengals team that was without Trey Hendrickson, Ja'Marr Chase, and, at least for most of the fourth quarter, Tee Higgins. 

With their bye week on the horizon, it could also represent a letdown spot for the Patriots. Three of the five best sports betting sites have the line at +7.5, with DraftKings' -115 odds representing the best value. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.70 profit.

Our Esten McLaren features Giants receiver Wan'Dale Robinson in his anytime touchdown scorer predictions, and he'll be a key player if New York is to keep it close and cover.

And Brenden Schaeffer also thinks New York can cover in his Giants vs. Patriots same-game parlay for Monday Night Football.

Score prediction: Giants 24, Patriots 21

Key matchup to watch on MNF

TreVeyon Henderson vs. Giants' defense

Henderson hit the Over on this total in four of the previous five games. It helped that Rhamondre Stevenson, who returned to the lineup last week against Cincy, only played in two of those games. 

I don't expect the Patriots to change their game plan much with Stevenson back, given how effective and productive Henderson has been. Henderson should be buoyed by the proposition of playing the league's worst rush defense.

The Giants are at the bottom in DVOA, yards per game (157.2), and yards per attempt (5.9), the last of which isn't particularly close with the second-last Buffalo Bills coughing up 5.3. 

Two of the best sports betting apps offer the lowest total (60.5 yards), with bet365 providing the best value (-111). Those odds imply a 52.61% likelihood, and a winning $10 bet would profit $9.01.

I'm also backing a QB to go over his rushing yards in my Giants vs. Patriots player props. Elsewhere, Sean Tomlinson is riding with Henderson too in his first touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football.

Best prop bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)

Giants vs. Patriots most-bet props

Here are the most-bet props in the hours before kickoff, via BetMGM.

1. Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 18.5 receiving yards
2. TreVeyon Henderson Over 60.5 rushing yards
3. Theo Johnson Over 30.5 receiving yards
4. DeMario Douglas Over 1.5 receptions
5. Drake Maye Over 244.5 passing yards

Giants vs. Patriots odds

See live NFL odds for every game in Week 13.

Giants vs. Patriots betting trends

Giants vs. Patriots injury report

Giants vs. Patriots weather

It's going to be a cold winter's night in Foxborough, with the temperature at 27 degrees at kickoff. While freezing, wind shouldn't be an issue, with gusts reaching just 4 mph. The conditions will be dry, with no snow in the forecast until Tuesday. 

Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.

How to watch Monday Night Football: Giants vs. Patriots

• Date: Monday, Dec. 1
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.)
• TV: ESPN

More Giants vs. Patriots picks for Monday Night Football

• Giants vs. Patriots prediction
• Giants vs. Patriots player props
• Giants vs. Patriots same-game parlay
• Giants vs. Patriots anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• Giants vs. Patriots first touchdown scorer predictions
• Drake Maye player props
• Jaxson Dart player props
• Giants vs. Patriots AI predictions
• Giants vs. Patriots weather report
• Giants vs. Patriots predictions & best bets