The Kansas City Chiefs have been perennial Super Bowl favorites for the past four seasons, but their trade of star wide receiver Tyreek Hill on Wednesday caused ripples that stretch beyond just the Chiefs’ outlook this season. Here’s how the Hill trade shifted the NFL futures market.
Kansas City traded Hill on Wednesday to the Miami Dolphins for five draft picks (a first-, second-, and fourth-round pick in 2022, as well as a fourth- and sixth-rounder in 2023). The Chiefs remain among the favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl, but their odds are getting longer with Hill’s departure.
Super Bowl Odds After Hill Trade
How Does Hill Change Dolphins' Outlook?
Hill is one of the game's premier wideouts, averaging more than 80 receiving yards per game to go along with 50 receiving touchdowns in 75 games across the last five seasons. However, he did most of that damage with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback.
In Miami, Hill will catch passes from third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who's started 21 games in his two seasons. He threw 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season, and his 6.8 yards per pass attempt ranked 25th among starting quarterbacks.
Hill's addition will certainly help Tagovailoa, but he doesn't automatically make the Dolphins' offense one of the league's most dangerous ones.
Dolphins' Super Bowl Odds
Ramifications in AFC East
Though the Buffalo Bills remain the clear favorites in the division, the Dolphins and New England Patriots now share the second-shortest odds to win the AFC East. That suggests Hill's arrival presents Miami with a big upgrade on offense, but also that the Dolphins still face an uphill climb to win the division.
AFC East Odds After Hill Trade
How Does Hill's Departure Impact Chiefs?
The Chiefs recently added former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Though he's not on Hill's level, his arrival will at least somewhat help mitigate the loss. Hill's departure also opens the door for fourth-year speedster Mecole Hardman to emerge as one of Mahomes' top targets. Additionally, the Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, who'll be looking to record his seventh straight season with at least 1,000 receiving yards.
Kansas City could also use a draft pick - including one of those from Miami - to add another playmaker. Potential wide receiver options late in the first round include Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, and Arkansas’ Treylon Burks.
SEE ALSO: 2022 NFL Draft Odds and Picks
Ramifications in AFC West
Throughout the course of the offseason, the Chiefs have gone from undeniable favorites in the AFC West to a team more closely resembling its rivals in terms of quality. The Denver Broncos traded for quarterback Russell Wilson, the Los Angeles Chargers acquired pass-rusher Khalil Mack, and the Las Vegas Raiders made the now-second-most surprising wide receiver trade by adding Davante Adams. It's now a much closer race for the division crown.
AFC West Odds After Hill Trade
Recommendation: Keep an eye on the Chiefs. The Hill loss is a significant one, but the team still features an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball. Let the odds settle for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl or even the AFC West, and use any significant change as an opportunity to buy.
As for the Dolphins, the odds have shifted so dramatically that Miami doesn't offer significant value right now. The Dolphins are better after acquiring Hill but still have a long way to go to become serious contenders.
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