NFL Futures: Watson, Ryan, Winston, Mariota Deals Shift Landscape

The offseason quarterback carousel in the NFL continues, most recently with Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota landing in new locations while Jameis Winston signed a new contract to stay in New Orleans.

Super Bowl prices for the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints were relatively short last week, because they were the two teams considered most likely to land Deshaun Watson via trade with the Houston Texans.

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Super Bowl Odds as of March 22

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But a busy NFL offseason continues, with teams making major quarterback changes and there are more to come. Baker Mayfield, at the very least, is not likely to remain in Cleveland and Jimmy Garoppolo may get traded from San Francisco, too.

Here is a look at the most recent flurry of quarterback moves and how it affected the odds for the teams involved.

Watson Traded to Browns

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There was no question that an NFL team would decide to trade for Watson. On the field, he has been one of the best players at the most important position. He also did not play last season because he had been accused of harassment and sexual assault by 22 women. While a grand jury did not indict Watson on those charges, public opinion was always going to be an issue for a team giving Watson a fresh start.

Not only did the Browns give Watson that fresh start, but they signed him to a new contract with the most guaranteed money ($230 million) in the history of the National Football League. And just because he was not indicted does not mean that Watson will avoid discipline from the NFL.

When Watson last played, in the 2020 season, he led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and 8.9 yards per pass attempt, throwing 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has also run for more than 400 yards in each of his past three seasons, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and running for 17 touchdowns in his career.

AFC North

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The addition of Watson has thrust the Browns into the position of favorites in the AFC North, just ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.

Recommendation: The Browns have upgraded, going from Mayfield to Watson at quarterback, but a potential Watson suspension still puts a wrinkle into any Browns value in 2022. If Watson is given a pass or a minimal suspension from the league, then the Browns would provide value at current prices. As it is, the risk of a Watson suspension still hovers over 2022 Browns markets in a way that makes their current AFC North or Super Bowl prices unappealing.

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Ryan Traded to Colts

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When the Colts traded Carson Wentz to Washington, it did not hurt Indianapolis' Super Bowl odds, an indication that the market was at least reasonably confident that the Colts could find a replacement who is every bit as good as Wentz.

The Colts are not exactly a bastion of stability at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck retired – with Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and now Ryan steering the ship since Luck retired following the 2018 season.

Ryan is a soon-to-be 37-year-old who has generally been an above-average starting quarterback, but he had not had a winning season in Atlanta since 2017 and his QBR of 46.1 in 2021 was a career-low as he threw 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt.

With the Colts, Ryan has the benefit of an elite ground game, thanks to a quality offensive line and stud running back Jonathan Taylor. Can Ryan provide enough to make the Colts a playoff team in 2022?

AFC South

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Giving the Colts a competent quarterback puts them into a dead heat with the Tennessee Titans for top spot in the AFC South. It still seems like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are some distance away from competing for that spot, so it almost becomes a two-horse race with very even odds between Indianapolis and Tennessee.

Recommendation: Ryan might provide an upgrade at quarterback for the Colts, enough to like their chances in the AFC South, but they are still in the realm of sleeper candidates for the Super Bowl. Might as well see how the rest of their offseason plays out before jumping at these prices because the odds won't get dramatically shorter unless something goes off the rails in Tennessee.

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Winston Re-signs With Saints

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Winston had his 2021 season cut short by a torn ACL in Week 8 and the Saints appeared to be in the market for a potential replacement, including Watson, before they ended up back in the same spot as last season, with Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback.

Winston is recovering from last season's knee injury and is expected to be ready for training camp.

Although he played in just seven games last season, Winston was reasonably effective in those games, passing for 14 touchdowns and three interceptions, an encouraging sign from a quarterback that led the league with 30 interceptions in the 2019 season. Winston averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2021 and his QB Rating of 102.8 was the best of his career. His QBR of 64.4 was the second-best of his career.

NFC South

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The AFC South market is tilted heavily towards the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wake of Tom Brady's return from a brief retirement, but the Saints are the next best option in the division. While Winston might not have been the Saints' first choice at quarterback, he is still a better option than what the Falcons and Panthers are offering at this point.

Recommendation: The Saints may be worth considering as a value play in the NFC South, though they are obviously facing the tall order of taking down Brady and the Buccaneers. There is not much upside to grabbing the heavily favored Bucs and the Saints had four straight seasons of double-digit win totals before going 9-8 last season.

Mariota Signed With Falcons

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While Ryan was relatively mediocre for the Falcons last season, they are adding a lot of risk with the decision to bring in Marcus Mariota, a 28-year-old who was the second overall pick in the 2015 draft but after mediocre play with the Tennessee Titans to start his career, Mariota has not started a game in the past two seasons for the Las Vegas Raiders.

In two seasons with the Raiders, Mariota completed 18 of 30 passes for 230 yards with one touchdown and one interception. That's hardly a ringing endorsement for a starting quarterback gig but it appears that Mariota is now the frontrunner for that job in Atlanta.

The Falcons have the eighth pick in the upcoming NFL draft and could use that selection on a quarterback, but there is not a first-round quarterback that is expected to come in and immediately improve their team, let alone one that would be available with the eighth pick. Thus, Mariota looks like he has an inside track on starting for the Falcons.

NFC South

The market is not especially impressed with the Falcons' addition at quarterback and that position is justified.

Recommendation: There is not much appeal to the Falcons at this point. Between the Calvin Ridley suspension and a re-tread option at quarterback, Atlanta will need to get creative if it is to put together a competitive offense. While there might be some case to be made for the Saints as an NFC South value play, the Falcons would need Mariota to have a major career resurrection to have a shot at contending this season. There is not enough reason to believe that Mariota is equipped to lead the Falcons to a winning record.

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