NFL Fraud Watch: Who are the 5 Biggest Turkeys After Thanksgiving?
I am breaking down my top-five fraudulent teams post-Turkey day as we head into the rest of our NFL Week 13 predictions. I am looking at teams with a .500 record or better that I believe do not have a realistic chance at taking home the Lombardi trophy this season.
I frankly don't believe in these teams and think they will let their fans down as we progress closer to the NFL playoffs. I will be offering up my best bet on each team I have deemed to be fraudulent, as we look to profit off overachievers in the early part of the 2025 NFL season.
5️⃣ San Francisco 49ers (8-4) (+3000)
Coming in at No. 5 on my list of fraudulent teams is the San Francisco 49ers. There are several reasons I am putting the 49ers on this list, but the main reason is that the 49ers' defense has just been decimated by injuries. The two best players on this defensive unit are Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, who are both on the season-ending IR list. The 49ers are currently in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards per game allowed, and they should continue down that path as the season goes on.
Another main reason I have the 49ers on this list is that their offense is not explosive enough for them to overcome the defensive issues. This is not a team that can throw the ball all day and claw their way back into games anymore. This offense is built to slow the game down and beat you methodically down the field, which they just cannot do when they go down early. Having Brock Purdy also does not help your case when he struggles with passes of 15 yards or more.
If you're looking for a team in the NFC West, I'd recommend taking the Rams to win the Super Bowl at +410 odds.
Bet to make instead: Rams to win the Super Bowl (+410 via FanDuel)
4️⃣ Denver Broncos (9-2) (+1400)
Coming in at No. 4 is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos just do not pass the eye test; they remind me of the 2024 Minnesota Vikings, who consistently won games in the regular season but ultimately had a meltdown in the first round of the playoffs. This team will make the playoffs, but they are fraudulent contenders. The Broncos' offense with Bo Nix leading the charge just does not have enough to make noise in the postseason.
This team has a championship-caliber defense, but you need a top-15 offense to go with that strong defensive unit to have a chance at taking home the Lombardi.
I am taking a stab at the Broncos live win total Under 12.5 at -105 odds. I do see this team losing to either the Jaguars or Chargers to end the season, which would help us go under this win total.
Bet to make instead: Broncos Under 12.5 wins (-105 via FanDuel)
3️⃣ Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) (+5000)
The Jags are occupying my No. 3 spot. I am not sure how many people believe in this Jags team, but I am not one of them. This is another team that does not pass the eye test, and one that has benefited from an extremely easy schedule. The Jags' offense - and defense for that matter - are a middling unit in the NFL this season. Trevor Lawrence is also not a winning quarterback, and this team likely will not make much noise as the season begins to unwind.
The Jaguars do not have a Super Bowl-caliber offense or defense. However, I believe I have a way that we can profit off of the Jags' early-season success.
I am betting the Jaguars to miss the playoffs at +250. Jacksonville has a one-game lead over the Bills, Texans, Chiefs, and Ravens. I see several of these teams passing them by season's end.
Bet to make instead: Jaguars to miss the playoffs (+250 via DraftKings)
2️⃣ Chicago Bears (9-3) (+3300)
The Bears earn the silver medal here. Chicago has an impressive record at this point in the season, but this team is not built to win a championship in 2025. Now, do I think this team has a bright future? Absolutely - just not this year. The Bears' defense allows the sixth-most yards per game in the NFL, and that is not conducive for playoff success in the NFL. Caleb Williams has taken big strides this season, but he is not at the level he needs to be at to pick up this defense that allows far too many chunk plays per game.
If the Bears want to have a realistic shot at competing this year, I need to see this defense play substantially better, and need to see Williams continued development as a quarterback.
I believe I have found a good bet to take advantage of the Bears' early success, but it is a bit pricey. I am taking the Packers to win the NFC North at -140 on FanDuel.
Bet to make instead: Packers to win the NFC North (-140 via FanDuel)
1️⃣ Baltimore Ravens (6-6) (+1700)
Is it just me, or does Lamar Jackson look like a completely different player this season? The Baltimore Ravens are the No. 1 team on my top-five fraud list. Not only has Jackson looked off this season, but what happened to the Ravens' defense? This unit has been the pride of the Ravens for years, and they have been getting battered and bruised all season long. The Ravens are also a bottom-10 defense in yards per game as several other teams on this list are.
The Ravens just had their most embarrassing loss of the season, as they were defeated by the lowly Cincinnati Bengals, 32-14, on Thanksgiving. Baltimore has looked subpar all season, and this team needs an offseason of retooling to get back to where they were over the past few seasons. I anticipate in 2026 this team being a true contender, but in 2025, they are the biggest pretenders in the NFL.
I am targeting the Steelers to win the AFC North at +190 as a value play. Both the Steelers and Ravens are currently tied with six wins on the season; I believe the Steelers are the better team, though, and will edge out the Ravens to cash this bet.
Bet to make instead: Steelers to win the AFC North (+190 via FanDuel)
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