First Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Thursday Night Football Week 3: Dolphins vs. Bills
There could be a whole lot of scoring tonight with the Buffalo Bills as 12.5-point betting favorites while hosting the Miami Dolphins in a game with a total of 50.5, and we're diving into who will open the festivities in our first touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football.
As part of our NFL picks and NFL predictions for Week 3, we're focusing on Bills receiver Keon Coleman (+1000), Dolphins running back De'Von Achane (+900), and Bills tight end Dawson Knox as a long shot (+2500). Kickoff is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.
Head over to our anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Thursday Night Football for more pay-dirt picks prior to TNF.
π First touchdown scorer predictions Thursday Night Football: Week 3
NFL touchdown scorer picks based on NFL odds that are subject to change.
- De'Von Achane to score the first touchdown (+900 via BetMGM) βββ
- Keon Coleman to score the first touchdown (+1000 via Caesars) βββ
- Dawson Knox to score the first touchdown (+2500 via bet365) β
π° Best Dolphins vs. Bills first touchdown scorer bets
Here are my favorite Dolphins vs. Bills first touchdown scorer picks for Thursday Night Football.
π¬ Dolphins first touchdown scorer prediction: De'Von Achane, RB (+900) βββ
Yes, it's difficult to back any Dolphins player ahead of a game in which the spread clearly forecasts a blowout and the Bills scoring early and fast, as noted in our Dolphins vs. Bills prediction.
But this is a market rooted in backing long shots, and it's difficult to pass on any running back to score first when his betting odds are in the neighborhood of +1000. That's what we're getting here with Achane. For perspective, James Cook - Achane's leading counterpart on the other sideline - is catching +425 odds at the best sports betting sites.
The Dolphins likely getting walloped doesn't mean they can't briefly surprise and score first if the coin flip goes their way. Achane could be central to that effort, too. The Dolphins surely don't want to overexpose the injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa behind a feeble offensive line and against the league's best pass defense so far. And the Bills have also been vulnerable on the ground while ranking 31st in run defense.
Achane's versatility out of the backfield has already led to two receiving touchdowns this season in as many games, and he scored 12 times last year. If he crosses the goal line first, a $10 bet on these +900 odds from BetMGM would lead to a $90 profit at 10% implied odds.
𦬠Bills first touchdown scorer prediction: Keon Coleman, WR (+1000) βββ
The large-bodied Coleman registered eight red-zone targets last year and five inside the 10-yard line while playing in a modest 13 games. He's also scored once this season while being targeted twice around the goal line.
Coleman is only one week removed from a whopping 11 targets that he turned into 112 yards, and now the wideout will get to face a pedestrian Dolphins defense that ranks 24th against the pass. Even more inviting, Miami has given up a staggering 66 points across just two games.
If Coleman scores again early this season and is the first to do so tonight, a $10 wager on him would result in a $100 payout at a 9.09% implied probability.
π― Best long shot to score first touchdown: Dawson Knox, TE (+2500) β
Knox will generally play behind Bills starting tight end Dalton Kincaid, but only marginally. In fact, early this season he's been ahead in a key area.
Knox has been given seven targets while being on the field for 56% of the team's offensive snaps, while Kincaid has received 10 targets but been featured on 49% of the snaps. Similarly, last year Knox trailed Kincaid in targets inside the 10-yard line where hulking tight ends are often utilized, but the gap wasn't significant with Kincaid receiving four and Knox getting two.
The run-oriented Bills are far more likely to muscle the ball into the end zone using either Cook or Josh Allen on the ground, and the betting odds reflect that reality. But if it's a true dart throw long shot you seek in a market made for a sprinkle on such a player, the odds gap between Knox at +2500 and Kincaid at +1600 makes for an easy decision.
A $10 bet on this deep-shot play through these +2500 odds from bet365 would result in a $250 payout if Knox scores first with an implied probability of 3.85%.
π Thursday Night Football first touchdown scorer odds
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
ποΈ Dolphins vs. Bills first touchdown betting insights
Here are the most-bet players to score first, via BetMGM.
- James Cook (+390)
- Josh Allen (+450)
- Dalton Kincaid (+1300)
- De'Von Achane (+900)
- Keon Coleman (+1000)
πΊ How to watch Thursday Night Football
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
βNFL betting FAQs
What does first touchdown scorer mean?
The first touchdown scorer bet in NFL betting means you're wagering on the first player to reach the end zone (excluding passing TDs). It's one of the most popular NFL prop bets, especially for prime-time games.
What does first touchdown scorer mean for a QB?
A first touchdown scorer bet for a quarterback means the QB must run or catch a touchdown - passing touchdowns donβt count. It's a popular NFL prop bet for mobile or trick-play QBs.
How do NFL touchdown scorer bets work?
There are multiple different ways to make your NFL touchdown scorer predictions. You can wager on a player to score an anytime touchdown, which pays out if they reach the end zone at any point for a touchdown. You can also bet on a player to score the first or last touchdown, multiple touchdowns, or to score in a particular half or quarter for larger payouts.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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