Early Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Picks for SNF: NFL Week 4
Many will dub the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys the “Micah Parsons revenge game,” and I explain who will avoid a two-game losing streak with my early Packers vs. Cowboys prediction.
The Packers are anywhere from 5.5 to 6-point betting favorites, and I factor that into my NFL picks. Bettors would be wise to monitor Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb’s injury status before making their NFL predictions for Week 4.
Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC).
Early Packers vs. Cowboys prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions.
Packers -5.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Packers come into this game hungry after blowing a 10-point lead with under four minutes to play against the Cleveland Browns last week. And not only was Dallas’ 17-point loss to the Chicago Bears worse, but it may be without its top playmaker in CeeDee Lamb.
The Packers are 6-0 all time at AT&T Stadium. That, and Lamb’s injury news, has me jumping on Green Bay as my early Packers vs. Cowboys best bet at anything less than a touchdown in case the wide receiver is ruled out.
Green Bay’s offense was stymied by a solid Browns defense, but it should perform much more efficiently this week.
Quarterback Jordan Love’s splits against man versus zone defense from last year are vastly different. Against man coverage, Love completed 56% of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt and was off-target on 20% of throws. Against zone, Love’s completion percentage increased to 68% while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and lowering his off-target percentage to 10%.
Those splits are significant since Dallas entered last week using zone on 86% of opponents’ dropbacks (the most in the NFL) while allowing 283.0 passing yards per game in that coverage.
With half of the best sports betting sites already a half-point higher at -6, I am taking advantage of the best number and price at DraftKings. Its -115 odds carry a 53.49% implied probability and would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.
Packers vs. Cowboys odds: Week 4
NFL odds update live in real time.
Packers vs. Cowboys opening odds
- Moneyline: Packers -150 | Cowboys +125
- Spread: Packers -2.5 (-115) | Cowboys +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-105) | Under 47.5 (-115)
Packers vs. Cowboys odds analysis
While the lookahead line for this game had the Packers laying less than a field goal, the line jump of 3.5 to 4 points has less to do with each team’s Week 3 performance and more to do with CeeDee Lamb’s health. This number would likely come down closer to a field goal if Lamb is declared active. Thus, Cowboys backers should weigh in now if there is optimism he suits up.
The O/U ticked up a point from 47.5 to 48.5 less than three hours after Week 3’s results were final, which is surprising considering Lamb’s questionable status. Bettors likely have Green Bay’s 48-32 playoff win at Dallas from two years ago squarely on their minds, considering Love finished with a 99.3 QBR against a then top-five defense.
This is likely the highest the total will go and only has room to lower if Lamb cannot play.
Packers vs. Cowboys injury report
Packers vs. Cowboys game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 28
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- How to watch: NBC
Packers vs. Cowboys FAQs
Who is favored to win Packers vs. Cowboys?
Green Bay is favored to win this game, with a moneyline of -250 at DraftKings that implies a 71.43% chance it will beat Dallas. The best moneyline available for the Cowboys is +225 at BetMGM, which implies a 30.77% chance they pull the upset.
What are the opening odds for Packers vs. Cowboys?
Green Bay was a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line but has been steamed up to -5.5 or -6 at the conclusion of Week 3. The total opened at 47.5 but has been bet up to 48.5 after Dallas allowed 298 passing yards and four touchdowns last week.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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