Early Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Odds & Picks for TNF: NFL Week 3

With such a massive spread (12.5 points), my Dolphins vs. Bills prediction focuses on the total as I expect TNF to consist of at least 50 points.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 15, 2025 7:22 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Early Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction, Odds & Picks for TNF: NFL Week 3 — Pictured: Josh Allen hurdles a tackle against the New York Jets. Photo by Vincent Carchietta via Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are on opposite trajectories as they prepare to battle on TNF from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., in Week 3. My Dolphins vs. Bills prediction sources various reasons to back the Over.

The Bills are the gargantuan 12.5-point betting favorite, and while I am tempted to back Buffalo in my NFL picks below, I settled on the total as a more reliable bet.

Thursday's game starts at 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video).

💰 Early Dolphins vs. Bills prediction & best bet

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions.

⬆️ Over 49.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

We're just two weeks into the regular season, and it already feels like the writing is on the wall for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. His Miami Dolphins are woeful. Offensively, defensively, it doesn't matter.

They are the current laughingstock of the league, as evidenced by the early TNF spread, which has the Bills as the 12.5-point betting favorite. While tempted to back the Bills to cover, I'm as scared about a garbage-time Miami cover as McDaniel should be about losing his job.

So, it's on to the Over.

The Dolphins' defense allowed points on the first 10 possessions of the 2025 season, one shy of tying the single-season record set by the San Diego Chargers in 2001.

As if that deflating tidbit isn't enough, the Dolphins must be as low on confidence and motivation as a professional clown who lost the ability to juggle. That's a foreboding thought entering Highmark Stadium against the high-octane Bills, who scored 71 points in their first two games.

That total probably would have been higher had MVP odds favorite Josh Allen and his band of offensive bullies not let their foot off the gas against the New York Jets. While the Dolphins' ability to score points concerns me, I have faith they can muster a few garbage-time scores against a potentially vulnerable and youthful Bills' defense. And who knows, maybe another punt return for six is on the cards.

Of the best sports betting sites, Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 offer the 49.5-point total at standard -110 juice, slightly better than the -115 at BetMGM and FanDuel.

📊 Dolphins vs. Bills odds: Week 3

NFL odds update live in real time.

📈 Dolphins vs. Bills opening odds

Moneyline: Dolphins +550 | Bills -800
Spread: Dolphins +12.5 (-110) | Bills -12.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)

🔍 Dolphins vs. Bills odds analysis

The total (49.5) and spread are at the standard juice (-110) to both sides at this early stage. Given that 72% of the public money is on the Over, I anticipate the total might increase to 50.5. If it doesn't, the -110 odds to the Over will shorten.

🚑 Dolphins vs. Bills injury report

📺 Dolphins vs. Bills game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 18
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
How to watch: Prime Video

❓ Dolphins vs. Bills FAQs

Who is favored to win Dolphins vs. Bills?

The Bills are the -900 moneyline betting favorite at FanDuel. Those odds imply a win probability of 90%.

What are the opening odds for Dolphins vs. Bills?

The Bills are the 12.5-point betting favorite via the best sports betting apps.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work and NFL experience has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.