Early Commanders vs. Packers Prediction, Odds & Picks: NFL Week 2 Best Bets for TNF

I expect the Packers to turn another excellent defensive performance into a cover as I make my Commanders vs. Packers prediction.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 10, 2025 7:17 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Early Commanders vs. Packers Prediction, Odds & Picks: TNF NFL Week 2 — Pictured: Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs (8). Photo by Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first official TNF of the year goes tomorrow, and my Commanders vs. Packers prediction analyzes the chances of the home betting favorite covering the 3.5-point spread as the Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders.

The Packers dismantled the Detroit Lions in Week 1 with dazzling displays on both sides of the ball, setting expectations sky high for our NFL picks. As part of the NFL predictions for Week 2, I offer a couple of reasons to think the Cheesheads will continue to party through the season's second week.

Kick off at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisc., is at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).

💰 Early Commanders vs. Packers prediction & best bet

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL predictions.

🧀 Packers -3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Packers were 5-4 ATS at Lambeau Field last season. However, with the addition of Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Micah Parsons, the current version of the Packers has undergone a significant facelift.

And I'm not talking about one of those botched, ghastly facelifts you see so often.

Green Bay steamrolled Detroit 27-13 at home on Sunday in a score that flattered the visitors. The Packers dominated every facet despite only featuring Parsons in 29 of 65 defensive snaps. With the acclimation process almost complete, expect their new asset to approach a full workload against a Commanders team he knows as well as any other opponent.

It's not just his familiarity with the Commanders, but the impact he had on Jayden Daniels last season. He sacked Daniels 4.5 times, had six QB hits, and four TFL in two games. He, along with Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary, should also be able to contain Daniels better than the New York Giants.

While the Commanders took care of business at home against the G-Men, they face an immeasurably more challenging prospect on the road against a Packers team that is clearly feeling it.

The best sports betting sites have the Packers as the 3.5-point betting favorite, with three of the five offering -110. Those betting odds imply a 52.38% probability and would yield a $9.09 profit on a winning $10 bet. We're getting slightly better odds with my updated Commanders vs. Packers prediction.

📊 Commanders vs. Packers odds: Week 2

NFL odds update live in real time.

📈 Commanders vs. Packers opening odds

Moneyline: Commanders +140 | Packers -165
Spread: Commanders +1.5 (-1110) | Packers -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)

🔍 Commanders vs. Packers odds analysis

The Packers opened as the 3.5-point betting favorite, with +105 odds. Those odds have since shortened to between -110 and -120, with money coming in on Green Bay. Of the early bets, 69% back the Packers to cover, as does 52% of the money, which could eventually result in the spread increasing to -4, possibly -4.5.

🚑 Commanders vs. Packers injury report

Commanders vs. Packers injury updates

With no practice on Tuesday, a few important notes have emerged. Two of the Packers starting o-line, Zach Tom and Aaron Banks, would not have been available if they had taken the field on the short week.

The Commanders starting QB Jayden Daniels is expected to be good to go after appearing on Monday's estimated injury report. However, on Tuesday it was estimated he would have been a full participant.

🔢 Commanders vs. Packers updated betting info

The Packers are the 3.5-point betting favorite across the board
64% of bets are on the Packers to cover
Green Bay's moneyline odds shortened from -125 to -190

📺 Commanders vs. Packers game info

When: Thursday, Sept. 11
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
How to watch: Prime Video

❓ Commanders vs. Packers FAQs

Who is favored to win Commanders vs. Packers?

The Green Bay Packers are the betting favorite for TNF, with moneyline odds ranging from -165 to -204. That's an implied probability of between 62.26% and 67.11%

What are the opening odds for Commanders vs. Packers?

The Packers are the 3.5-point betting favorite, with odds ranging from -110 to -120. The total is set at 48.5 points at bet365, with the Over and Under juiced at the standard -110.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work and NFL experience has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.