Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction: Monday Night Football Odds & MNF Picks Tonight
The Miami Dolphins visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football, with my Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction backing Mike Tomlin’s squad to cover.
The Steelers are a 3-point betting favorite over the Dolphins tonight, with kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh slated for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN). My NFL Week 15 predictions break down Tua Tagovailoa’s struggles in the cold and why his running back should be in line for a big night.
🏈 Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction: Monday Night Football
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Steelers -3 (-113) ⭐⭐⭐
The Dolphins are getting hot at the right time of the season. However, I'm not sold on Mike McDaniel's team, particularly considering the freezing conditions expected in the latest Dolphins vs. Steelers weather report.
Only one of their six wins has come against a team with a record better than .500, and four victories occurred against teams with three wins (New York Jets twice, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Commanders).
So, I'm not ready to back them in a game where the temperature will be 17 degrees at kickoff. While they played in freezing conditions last week at MetLife Stadium, I'm not willing to say their issues in cold weather are behind them, given the lackluster level at which the Jets played.
Conditions suited for Steelers
Tagovailoa is 0-5 in games below 40 degrees, 1-6 when it's 45 degrees or colder, and 2-8 in 50 or below (via Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post).
During their current four-game win streak, the Dolphins lead the NFL with 192.3 rush yards per game, so expect a heavy dose of the same in chilly Pittsburgh.
And while Pittsburgh's 17th-ranked rush DVOA won't deter the Dolphins, Mike Tomlin's team can scheme with that probable eventuality in mind.
Monday's conditions represent the Steelers' bread and butter, and they're more battle-tested going in, with only two of the previous seven games played against teams under .500, one of which was the Baltimore Ravens. Esten McLaren's anytime touchdown scorer predictions also side with the home team in cold weather.
The odds for a Steelers' cover range from -110 to -116, with the former offered by DraftKings. At the standard -110 juice, a winning $10 bet will earn $9.09 in profits.
Elsewhere, our Phil Wood expects a low-scoring affair in his Dolphins vs. Steelers early prediction. And Brenden Schaeffer is focusing on two Pittsburgh tight ends in his Dolphins vs. Steelers same-game parlay.
Score prediction: Steelers 21, Dolphins 17
💡 More Week 15 predictions
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🔥 Best Dolphins vs. Steelers player prop bet
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De'Von Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards
Achane smashed through the over on this total in four straight games, averaging a ridiculous 130 yards per game. Based on the conditions and the Dolphins' recent over-reliance on the ground game, he'll be in for another heavy workload.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most rushing yards against in the last three games (188.3) and the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt (4.4) in that same sample size. Speaking of the Steelers, I have a couple of plays on their backfield in my Dolphins vs. Steelers player props.
Pittsburgh struggled mightily in the last two, allowing 217 rush yards against Baltimore last week and 249 in the previous week against Buffalo at home. I believe the game will be close throughout, allowing the Dolphins to stick with the run. If Achane accounts for at least 79 rushing yards, you'll earn $8.85 on a $10 bet at DraftKings.
This exact prop bet is also favored by our robot friend in our Dolphins vs. Steelers AI predictions.
📊 Live Dolphins vs. Steelers odds
See the latest NFL odds for every game in real time.
📈 Dolphins vs. Steelers betting trends
| Dolphins | Statistic | Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 6-7 | W-L record | 7-6 |
| 7-6 | ATS record | 6-7 |
| 7-6 | O/U record | 7-5-1 |
| 5.4 | Yards per play | 5.2 |
| 5.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4 |
| -0.1 | Turnover margin | +0.7 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| W, 34-10 Jets | Previous result | L, 27-22 Ravens |
🚑 Dolphins vs. Steelers injury report
❄️ Dolphins vs. Steelers weather
It will be freezing at 18 degrees in Pittsburgh, with wind gusts up to 17 mph. At the time of writing, there is no chance of precipitation. We break down everything you need to know in our Dolphins vs. Steelers weather report.
🎟️ Dolphins vs. Steelers betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet | Percentage of bets | Percentage of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins ML (+150) | 49% | 26% |
| Steelers ML (-175) | 51% | 74% |
| Dolphins +3 | 35% | 64% |
| Steelers -3 | 65% | 36% |
| Over 42.5 | 40% | 9% |
| Under 42.5 | 60% | 91% |
📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Dolphins vs. Steelers
- Date: Monday, Dec. 15
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV: ESPN
💡 Monday Night Football expert picks
- Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction
- Dolphins vs. Steelers player props
- Dolphins vs. Steelers AI predictions
- Dolphins vs. Steelers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Dolphins vs. Steelers first touchdown scorer predictions
- Dolphins vs. Steelers same-game parlay
- Aaron Rodgers player props
- Tua Tagovailoa player props
- Can Dolphins end losing streak in cold weather?
- Dolphins vs. Steelers weather report
- Dolphins vs. Steelers expert picks
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