Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction for Thursday Night Football: Odds & TNF Picks for Tonight
The two teams clashing during Thursday Night Football have experienced wildly different starts, as the winless Miami Dolphins visit the undefeated Buffalo Bills, and my Dolphins vs. Bills prediction believes those trends will continue. Tonight's contest at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., begins at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady's unit has the Bills out to a strong start, and my NFL picks recommend an Over for a Josh Allen prop. Buffalo is listed as the 12.5-point betting favorite as we make all of our NFL predictions for Week 3.
🏈 Dolphins vs. Bills prediction for Thursday Night Football
NFL expert picks based on the latest Thursday Night Football odds; subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Bills (-800 via BetMGM) ⭐
- Against the spread pick: Bills -11.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Thursday Night Football preview & best bet
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
🦬 Bills Over 30.5 points (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Backing Over 49.5 points, which I supported in my early Dolphins vs. Bills prediction, is still a solid play. But I've turned to the Bills' 30.5-point team total to avoid the potential issue of Miami's offense coming up with bupkis.
The Bills are an offensive wagon, which will only surprise those who've been living in a cave for the last five years. But you might be surprised to learn how much of a wagon Allen's offense is on home turf.
Buffalo has scored at least 31 points in six of the previous nine home regular-season games, scoring 30 in two of the three exceptions.
Their offense averaged 33.2 points per game at home last season, the second most behind Detroit's 34.9. Against Baltimore in the opener, they finished with 41. The offense hit the Over on their team total in 10 of the last 11 in their friendly confines.
At this rate, Bills' ownership might think twice before moving to their state-of-the-art new stadium.
And then there's the Dolphins, who allowed the second-most points per game (33) in the first two weeks. And it's not like they've faced frightening, top-tier offenses, though Danny Dimes and his surprising Indianapolis Colts unit would vehemently disagree.
DraftKings (-120) is the best sportsbook to trigger this wager as it offers better value than the other best sports betting sites. A winning $10 bet will yield an $8.33 profit. At the low end of the market, bet365 (-135) would pay a $7.41 profit.
💰 Best Dolphins vs. Bills player prop bet for Thursday Night Football
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Allen Over 26.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Allen looks more comfortable with taking off the second he sees an opening or doesn't like something downfield in coverage. He had 30 rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens in the opener and 59 against the New York Jets, highlighted by an early 40-yard scamper.
Allen ran for at least 30 yards in seven of the previous nine games and four of the last five, including last season's playoffs.
Most fantasy sites have him projected for 36 yards against the Dolphins, who conceded 26 yards on the ground to Daniel Jones and 31 to Drake Maye.
That bodes well for Allen and anyone who tails this bet.
Allen's total ranges from 26.5 to 28.5 yards at the best sports betting apps. bet365 not only offers the lowest total, but also the best odds (-110). A winning $10 bet will yield a $9.09 profit.
📊 Dolphins vs. Bills odds: TNF
NFL odds update live in real time.
📈 Dolphins vs. Bills opening odds
- Moneyline: Dolphins +550 | Bills -800
- Spread: Dolphins +12.5 (-110) | Bills -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115) | Under 49.5 (-105)
🔍 Dolphins vs. Bills BetMGM betting insights
According to John Ewing , Data + PR for BetMGM, here is a look at some of the insights at the sportsbook.
- The Bills opened as the 12.5-point betting favorite
- Despite 79% of bets and 83% of the money on the Bills, there has been no movement
- The total opened at 49.5 points
- It now sits at 50.5 with 80% of the money on the Over
- The Dolphins opened at +550 on the moneyline, now trading at +575
- 52% of the bets are on the visitor moneyline, but just 18% of the money
🎟️ Dolphins vs. Bills prop betting
Here are the most-bet props ahead of kickoff, again via BetMGM.
- De'Von Achane Over 53.5 receiving yards (-115)
- James Cook Over 84.5 rushing/receiving yards (-118)
- Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards (-115)
- James Cook Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Matt Prater Over 1.5 field goals made (-135)
And here are the most-best players to score a touchdown.
- James Cook (-165)
- Josh Allen (-155)
- Curtis Samuel (+1200)
- De'Von Achane (+900)
- Keon Coleman (+185)
🔢 Dolphins vs. Bills stats
Season stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
| Dolphins (0-2) | Statistic (per game) | Bills (2-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | Points | 35.5 |
| 33 | Points allowed | 25 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | 1 |
| 215 | Passing yards | 284 |
| 69.5 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 236.5 | Passing yards allowed | 124 |
| 139 | Rushing yards allowed | 169 |
| -0.2 | Net yards per play | 0 |
🚑 Dolphins vs. Bills injury report
📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
❓ Thursday Night Football FAQs
Who plays on Thursday Night Football?
The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins for TNF.
When is Thursday Night Football?
TNF starts at 8:15 p.m. ET and can be seen on Prime Video.
Who is favored to win Thursday Night Football?
The Bills are the -11.5 or -12.5 betting favorite to win.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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