Dolphins vs. Bills Player Prop Picks: Thursday Night Football
NFL Week 3 kicks off in Orchard Park, N.Y., with a Thursday Night Football battle between longtime AFC East rivals, and I’ve got my best Dolphins vs. Bills player prop picks locked and loaded.
Buffalo is a 12.5-point betting favorite for this clash at Highmark Stadium (8:20 p.m. ET, Prime Video). In addition to my three TNF prop bets on this game, we’ve got dozens of other NFL picks among our slate of NFL predictions for Week 3.
Be sure to check out our full betting breakdown for Thursday Night Football, including the latest live odds and additional Dolphins vs. Bills predictions.
🏈 Best Dolphins vs. Bills player prop picks: Thursday Night Football
NFL player prop picks based on the latest Thursday Night Football odds; subject to change.
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- James Cook Under 68.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Tyreek Hill Under 66.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
💰 Best Thursday Night Football player props: Dolphins vs. Bills
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Josh Allen hasn’t just had his way with Miami’s defensive backs over the years; he’s flat-out destroyed them. In 14 career regular-season games and one playoff contest, Allen has thrown 40 touchdowns. Number of times Allen has racked up multiple TD passes in those 15 games: 14.
Need more convincing to play this prop at bet365 (which has the best odds at -130)? This should do the trick: Two quarterbacks have already shredded the Dolphins this season. Those QBs? Daniel Jones (272 yards, 1 TD) and Drake Maye (230 yards, 2 TDs).
And while Allen didn’t have an aerial score in last week’s 30-10 rout of the Jets, he had two in Week 1 against Pittsburgh - and he has multiple scoring passes in 11 of his last 16 games (postseason included).
This bet carries a 56.52% implied win probability, with a $10 bet returning $7.69.
⬇️ James Cook Under 68.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐
I fully expect the Bills to try to establish the run against Miami. And I fully expect them to ask James Cook to do the heavy lifting. I just don’t expect it to work.
Yes, the Dolphins are allowing 139 rushing yards per game (eighth-most in the league). But the top two tailbacks they’ve faced - the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor and the Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson - tallied just 71 and 54 yards, respectively.
Cook did erupt for 132 yards (and two TDs) last week against the Jets. But the Ravens held him to 44 yards on 13 carries in the opener. And in the four career games against the Dolphins where he’s had double-digit carries, Cook produced yardage totals of 29, 34, 36, and 78.
If you tail this play at Caesars, you’ll lay -115 odds, giving you an implied win probability of 53.49%. A $10 wager stands to win $8.70.
⬇️ Tyreek Hill Under 66.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Tyreek Hill came to life last week against New England, hauling in six passes for 109 yards. However, it was just the seventh time in the last 18 games that Hill cleared 61 receiving yards. One of those positive performances came in Buffalo last November (four catches, 80 yards). Hill also had 82 yards (on seven catches) against the Bills in the 2023 regular-season finale.
Otherwise, Buffalo has tamed The Cheetah, limiting him to 63 yards or fewer in six of seven other meetings. Also worth noting: Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle is banged up. If he doesn’t play or is limited, Buffalo - which has the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense - can divert more attention to Hill.
Bet365 has the optimum number on this prop, and its -110 odds equate to a 52.38% implied win probability. Your payout on a winning $10 wager: $9.09.
📺 How to watch Thursday Night Football
- When: Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
❓ Thursday Night Football FAQs
What are the best player props for Thursday Night Football?
The best player props for Thursday Night Football are Bills quarterback Josh Allen Over 1.5 touchdown passes, Bills running back James Cook Under 68.5 rushing yards, and Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill Under 66.5 receiving yards.
When is Thursday Night Football?
The Thursday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, and will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
How do NFL player props work?
Player props are wagers on individual performances rather than the outcome of the game. Common props include passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, and touchdown scorers. For example, if a QB’s passing yards line is set at 250.5, you can bet the Over (251-plus yards) or Under (250 or fewer yards). You can also bet on if a specific player will score a touchdown in the entire game, the first or last touchdown, and more NFL odds markets.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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