Cowboys vs. Commanders Predictions & Odds | Best Bet, TD Pick for Christmas Day
Though both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, there should be no love lost in this NFC East rivalry game as I make my Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions. Kickoff for this first of three games on Christmas Day is set for 1 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. (Netflix).
Dallas is a 7-point betting favorite, and my NFL Week 17 predictions back the Cowboys to cover the spread for the ninth time in the last 10 games against Washington.
🏈 Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction: Christmas Day
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
| Cowboys -7 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown scorer | +120 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Cowboys -7 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
The fact that Dallas was as high as a 2.5-point home favorite against a previous 10-win Chargers team says all you need to know about how the best sports betting sites view the talent on the Cowboys' roster.
In hindsight, Los Angeles was a bad matchup for the Cowboys, as it entered the game allowing just 2.6 explosive plays per game (second-best in the NFL). Conversely, Washington is not built to take advantage of Dallas’ 30th-ranked pass defense DVOA, especially if Josh Johnson is under center.
Some of the value is gone from this point spread, which is up from -5.5 to the key number of -7. I would make this a more confident four-star play at anything -6.5 or lower.
Score prediction: Cowboys 33, Commanders 23
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🙌 Best Cowboys vs. Commanders TD pick
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CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys: Anytime touchdown scorer (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Washington’s defense entered last week allowing a league-high 3.06 points per drive over its last seven games. Additionally, the Commanders' pass defense had given up a league-worst 8.4 yards per attempt and ranked 31st in touchdown rate (6.5%).
All of that has me backing CeeDee Lamb to positively regress from scoring just three touchdowns this season (three other Cowboys have logged more receiving scores).
Lamb has tallied six touchdowns in his last six games against Washington, with at least one score in five of those contests.
📊 Live Cowboys vs. Commanders odds
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📈 Cowboys vs. Commanders betting trends
| Cowboys | Statistic | Commanders |
| 6-8-1 | W-L record | 4-11 |
| 7-8 | ATS record | 5-10 |
| 10-4-1 | O/U record | 8-6-1 |
| 6.18 | Yards per play | 5.66 |
| 6.31 | Yards allowed per play | 6.36 |
| -8 | Turnover margin | -12 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| L, 34-17 vs. Chargers | Previous result | L, 29-18 vs. Eagles |
🚑 Cowboys vs. Commanders injury report
🌤️ Cowboys vs. Commanders weather
Temperatures for the Cowboys vs. Commanders Christmas Day game will remain around 42 degrees for all four quarters, with a 10% chance of precipitation throughout.
Check our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts and betting impacts for every game this week.
📺 How to watch Cowboys vs. Commanders
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Md.)
- TV: Netflix
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