Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Conference Championships
Read on for our NFL Conference Championship expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.
The lines have barely moved on both conference championship matchups. The two-time AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, while the Los Angeles Rams drew a line of -3.5 against their divisional rivals in the NFC.
Here's a look at the top moneyline and Over/Under picks for the NFL Conference Championship games from our team of betting experts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).:
Top AFC Conference Championship Expert Picks
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SEE ALSO: Bengals vs. Chiefs Conference Championship Picks
Top AFC Conference Championship ATS Expert Picks
Bengals +7.5 (- 110 via PointsBet)
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has shown he's not intimidated by anyone and will want to show that he's already one of the best in primetime.
The Chiefs defense plays man coverage and blitzes at the league's sixth- and eighth-highest rates. So, why is this a problem? Because the Bengals average 11.4 yards passing against man coverage, and Burrow averaged 11.5 per attempt when blitzed this season. He shredded the Chiefs in Week 17 for 446 yards and four touchdowns, and the Chiefs secondary hasn't improved since.
This number is too big for this explosive Bengals offense, which is more than capable of keeping this one close or winning outright. - Anderson
Bengals +7.5 (-118 via FanDuel)
After a mediocre start to the season, the Bengals emerged from their Week 10 bye as a more formidable squad. In 10 games since, including the playoffs, the Bengals have won seven and lost three. That included a Week 17 win against Kansas City before the Bengals rested their stars in a Week 18 loss at Cleveland. In nine games since the bye, Burrow has passed for 2,706 yards, completing 73% of his passes and throwing 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. That has allowed the Bengals to stay competitive at the highest level.
The Chiefs might have been mediocre to start the season, going 3-4 while QB Patrick Mahomes threw nine interceptions in the first seven games. Since then, though, the Chiefs' defense tightened up and Mahomes has passed for 25 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 games, with Kansas City winning 10. The only blemish on their record was in Week 17 at Cincinnati, with the Bengals kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired.
With the Bengals having covered the spread in six straight games, including four games as the underdog, they should not be rattled against the favored Chiefs. With the line stretching beyond a touchdown, that's enough to like Cincinnati's chances for another cover in the AFC Championship Game. - Cullen
Bengals +7 (+100 via DraftKings)
I admittedly don't love making a bet on the spread here in our NFL expert picks, but this should wind up being the right side. Cincinnati is now 6-0 against the spread in its last six games, dating back to a win over Denver and spanning its two playoff games this season. One of those covers came against Kansas City in a game where the Bengals were 3.5-point underdogs.
I do agree that the Chiefs are in a much better spot than they were even just six weeks ago, looking poised to win the Super Bowl. It is also a fact that Kansas City has historically struggled to cover large spreads. Since the start of 2020, the Chiefs are just 17-19 ATS as the favorites.
The Bengals' offense has looked lethal this postseason and it should be more than capable of breaking through a Chiefs defense that looked spent last week. - Ducey
Chiefs -7 (-120 via DraftKings)
This line so desperately wants to move off the touchdown-plus-PAT number at DraftKings Sportsbook, as the Chiefs are now strained to -120 odds at the -7 mark. If you fancy the Bengals in this game, I'd try and wait it out to see whether you might be able to land them somewhere at +7.5, because it's possible that's the kind of movement we see for this line in advance of Sunday.
But I'm on the Chiefs this weekend in my NFL expert picks. I think after the excitement of the Divisional Round, we're going to witness a correction on championship weekend wherein the best teams prove why they were the best teams all along. So that means the Chiefs correcting some of their flaws from a 34-31 loss to the Bengals in Week 17, disposing of Cincinnati at Arrowhead Stadium en route to another Super Bowl appearance for Mahomes and Co. - Schaeffer
Top AFC Conference Championship O/U Expert Picks
Over 54.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
When these two teams met in Week 17, they combined for 65 points and nearly 900 yards. Though the Chiefs' secondary improved throughout the season, most of that was due to a soft schedule.
Last week, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills torched them for 438 yards and five touchdowns. Things won't improve Sunday when they face Burrow and this Bengals offense, which is fifth in EPA per play since defeating the Oakland Raiders in Week 11.
The Bengals graded out as PFF's 20th-ranked defense and are susceptible in the middle of the field. That's not ideal when facing Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
Both Mahomes and Burrow will have their way here, and I expect this one to soar Over the total in our NFL expert picks. - Anderson
Under 54.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
After these two teams combined for 65 points in Week 17, the expectation is that this game will also be a shootout, hence the high total.
It should be noted, however, that the Bengals have not typically been playing run-and-gun football. They have reached a total of 55 or more points three times in the past 10 games. As much as they have shown that they can trade score for score with Kansas City, there ought to be some consideration that Cincinnati's best chance to compete in the game is to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the Chiefs as much as possible.
There were some lower scoring games in the middle of the season for the Chiefs, but they have shown their famous explosive offense down the stretch, reaching a total of 55 or more points in five of eight games since their bye week.
It is possible that this game is like the Week 17 matchup, but both teams have shown that they can grind out wins, if need be, so I'm leaning towards the Under in our NFL expert picks. - Cullen
Over 54.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Did you know the last seven Chiefs games - dating back to the regular season and including the playoffs - went Over the total? Well, now you do. This team plays an incredible level of offense and its defense, while better, has still not been able to hold up against good competition.
The Over hit by a full two touchdowns when these two teams met, which is no surprise given they're both in the top 10 of points scored per game. I'd take this up to 56. - Ducey
Under 54.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
We all know what the K.C. offense can do, but I expect the defense for the Chiefs to make its presence known this week. If you watched the Chiefs on a weekly basis during the middle stretch of the season, it was truly the defense more so than the offense that was responsible in many weeks for securing the W for the AFC West champs. Look for the K.C. pass rush to make life difficult once again on a beleaguered Bengals' offensive line as the Chiefs convincingly advance to take another crack at the Lombardi Trophy.
Because of the anticipated impact of the Chiefs' defense on the proceedings, I don't think the total reaches the inflated 54.5. Despite the presence of two elite quarterbacks, I'm looking at a game script in the neighborhood of a 31-16 Chiefs win. - Schaeffer
Top NFC Conference Championship Expert Picks
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SEE ALSO: 49ers vs. Rams Conference Championship Picks
Top NFC Conference Championship ATS Expert Picks
49ers (+3.5 via DraftKings)
The San Francisco 49ers continue to haunt the Rams. Not only did they defeat them twice during the regular season, but they've gone 6-0 against them collectively the last three seasons.
Sean McVay is considered the boy genius of the NFL, but Kyle Shanahan owns a 7-3 record against him, both straight up and against the spread.
The Rams' defense graded out No. 1 on PFF; however, they’re vulnerable against the run. We know Shanahan wants to establish the run game to keep the more explosive Rams offense on the sideline, so we’ll see a heavy dose of Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel while expecting methodical and sustained offensive drives, keeping this game close.
You might assume it's hard for a team to defeat another three times in a season, but you shouldn't.
In matchups, when one team beat the other in both regular-season games, historically, the 2-0 team is 14-8 ATS in the third meeting. Don't shy away from the 49ers in this spot. - Anderson
49ers +3.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
It should not require a great deal of explanation to consider why the 49ers might make sense as an underdog, getting 3.5 points, against a team that they have already beaten twice this season. It should be noted, of course, that the 49ers fell behind 17-0 in Week 18 before rallying for a 27-24 win in overtime, a victory that punched the 49ers' ticket to the playoffs and showed some of the resilience that they have needed in the postseason.
There are lots of questions about the play of 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, considering that he has passed for 303 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions in two playoff games, but Jimmy G has weapons.
The Rams are interesting, if somewhat infuriating. When they play their best, they look like a legit Super Bowl team. The first half of Week 18 against San Francisco, the entire wild-card game against Arizona, and the first three quarters of the Divisional Round against Tampa Bay all showed a Rams team that could march the ball up and down the field combined with a defense led by defensive tackle Aaron Donald and corner Jalen Ramsey that could wreak havoc. But that same defense could not protect big leads against San Francisco and Tampa Bay (though four lost fumbles against the Bucs was not a defensive problem as much as it was a problem left for the defense).
In any case, the Rams have won seven of their past eight games, with the only loss being that Week 18 OT loss to San Francisco, and that is why the Niners should still be considered a viable underdog when getting 3.5 points. - Cullen
49ers +3.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
It feels like everyone and their mother is on the 49ers here, and that's because it's the right side. Shanahan is 7-3 against the spread and straight up against Sean McVay and San Francisco simply has L.A.'s number in this matchup.
The Niners were able to sack Matt Stafford five times when they took out the Rams in Week 18 and truly bring the worst out of the volatile quarterback. I suspect this pass rush gets up to its old tricks and Samuel once again tortures this secondary, which has been wavering all year. - Ducey
Rams -3.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
I just think this is another example of the likely course correction following the topsy-turvy Divisional Round games. The Rams are the better team, and it's difficult to beat a better team in their home stadium twice over the course of four weeks. That's what the 49ers would need to do to advance to the Super Bowl this week.
The connection between Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp has been lethal all season long, but you got a stark reminder of the different level upon which this duo can operate when Kupp torched the Bucs' defense on consecutive plays to set up Matt Gay's game-winning field goal last week. I respect the hell out of what the San Francisco defense has been able to do throughout this playoff run, but I don't think they have an answer for Kupp. They shouldn't feel bad. Nobody does. - Schaeffer
Top NFC Conference Championship O/U Expert Picks
Under 45.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
The San Francisco secondary is suspect, so we know Shanahan will establish the run game to dominate possession and run the clock. Compounding this is the fact the 49ers also rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive pace.
Additionally, Niners defensive linemen Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead should wreak havoc on Stafford.
According to PFF, Stafford registered a 112.4 passer rate in a clean pocket this season, but that number drops to 81.6 when pressured. So I don't expect a robust aerial assault from the Rams in this spot.
These games are typically won in the trenches, and both teams will muddy it up. The Under is 6-0 in the 49ers' last six playoff road games, and I don't expect that to change here for our NFL expert picks. - Anderson
Over 45.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
San Francisco's recent offensive struggles do not make it easy to like the Over but circumstances matter, too. The NFC Championship Game is going to be played in sunny Los Angeles, not snowy Green Bay, so that should help San Francisco's offense. And the way that the Rams have been playing, the 49ers will likely have to score a decent amount to keep up. In regular-season meetings against teams that made the playoffs, the 49ers' total was 46 or higher in four of the seven games.
In the Rams’ case, they have been alternating a total Over and Under 46 points for each week since Week 10. Overall, they have gone Over in 10 of 19 games, with one push, while San Francisco has gone Over in eight of 19 games.
It's possible that the game could be a slog, as both teams have battled in that manner sometimes this season, but there is too much offensive talent for both teams to expect them to get completely shut down, so I lean towards the Over in our NFL expert picks. - Cullen
Over 45.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Garoppolo threw for 498 yards in two meetings with the Rams this season and should be more than capable of getting us over halfway to the total with the ridiculous playmakers he has. We know L.A. to be weak over the middle, and Kittle should have an absolute field day.
On the other side of the coin, the Rams just put up 30 points on one of the best defenses in the league last week and have averaged 32 per game for the postseason with a solid 10-8-1 record to the Over in all games this year. I expect a shootout, just like the Week 18 affair which totaled 50 points. - Ducey
Over 45.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
In my article breaking down the best player props for the 49ers side, I planted my flag on Garoppolo Over 232.5 passing yards. I think this is a game that the Rams win comfortably, but I could envision the 49ers piling up more offense than one might expect based on a glance at last week's box score.
While they failed to score an offensive touchdown last week, this offense fared pretty well against the Rams in the Week 18 overtime win. We know they have that in them. With Samuel, they're also in scoring position from pretty much anywhere on the field. So I like the notion of the 49ers inching across midfield a number of times in this game, ultimately doing their part in pushing the total Over in a script that forces the Rams to continue applying pressure offensively throughout all four quarters. I'm going with Rams 27, 49ers 20. - Schaeffer
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