Commanders vs. Packers Prediction, Odds & Picks Tonight: NFL Week 2 Best Bets for TNF
I'm breaking down tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between Washington and Green Bay with my Commanders vs. Packers prediction as part of our NFL predictions for Week 2.
The Packers are a 3.5-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisc., at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Can Green Bay build off a strong Week 1 to cover tonight?
My NFL picks also highlight a Jayden Daniels rushing prop, while our Matt Jacob targets three other players in his Commanders vs. Packers player props.
🏈 Commanders vs. Packers prediction
NFL odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Packers (-178 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Packers -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 48 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best prop bet: Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📰 Commanders vs. Packers latest news
- Packers star pass-rusher Micah Parsons is questionable for tonight's matchup alongside cornerback Nate Hobbs, right tackle Zach Tom, and left guard Aaron Banks.
- Green Bay's secondary could have to rely on its depth if Hobbs is limited or has to outright miss tonight's game, as corner Bo Melton has already been ruled out.
- Meanwhile, the Commanders have two players listed as questionable for tonight: punter Tress Way and defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr.
📝 Commanders vs. Packers best bet
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
🧀 Packers -3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
I've downgraded the Packers to cover, part of my NFL picks against the spread, to a three-star play after the latest news about Micah Parsons' back injury.
Parsons will not be fully integrated into the defense until he is 100% healthy. While that tidbit changes the complexion, he should still have enough of a presence if he features in close to half of the Packers' defensive snaps, like he did in Week 1.
It will be interesting to see how Jayden Daniels and Co., acquit themselves in their first away game against an immeasurably superior team than their Week 1 opponent. Sorry, G-Men fans, but you know better than anyone the state of your team.
The Commanders were 7-2 ATS at home last season but struggled on the road, finishing with a 3-4-1 ATS record. There's no doubt Daniels can keep any game close, but I believe the Commanders' defense isn't as good as the Giants' offense made it look.
As long as Parsons plays at full capacity for 50% or so of the snaps in which he features, the Packers should have just enough of an advantage defensively to cover.
All of the best sports betting sites have reached a consensus, with the Packers the 3.5-point betting favorite at -105 by the Thursday Night Football odds.
💰 Best Commanders vs. Packers player prop bet
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Daniels scampered for 68 yards in Week 1 against the highly touted Giants' defensive line, and he hit the Over on this total in 10 of 17 games last season.
He's facing a Packers defensive line that has improved vastly since Micah Parsons' arrival, along with last season's third-ranked coverage unit (PFF).
If Daniels is pressured or has trouble finding open targets downfield, he won't think twice about scampering free. I expect his legs to be an integral part of the Commanders' offense.
FanDuel offers the lowest total, while BetMGM has the highest total (46.5 yards). Even so, FanDuel's -114 odds provide better value than BetMGM's -115.
Thursday Night Football expert picks
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- Commanders vs. Packers expert picks
📊 Commanders vs. Packers odds: Week 2
Commanders vs. Packers odds update live in real time.
📈 Commanders vs. Packers opening odds
Here are the opening NFL odds for Commanders vs. Packers:
- Moneyline: Commanders +105 | Packers -125
- Spread: Commanders +1.5 (-110) | Packers -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
🔍 Commanders vs. Packers odds analysis
The Packers' moneyline odds and spread increased after they acquired Parsons, and 64% of bets back the home team to cover. Meanwhile, 59% of bettors expect the total to go over 48.5 points, and I agree.
🎟️ Commanders vs. Packers game day odds
There hasn't been a lot of notable movement as of Thursday morning, but it is notable that if you're on the Packers to cover you can shop around to find a flat 3 that could earn you a push in the event the game lands right on the number. With 63% of the betting public on the home side, it seems unlikely that the line will drop below that number.
The industry is near-unanimous with the total of 48.5, and the split shades just slightly to the Over (56%). However, BetMGM is offering a rogue 47.5 if you want to try to take advantage of the extra point.
🔢 Commanders vs. Packers stats
Season stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
| Commanders (1-0) | Statistic (per game) | Packers (1-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Points | 27 |
| 6 | Points allowed | 13 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 1 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 188 |
| 220 | Rushing yards | 78 |
| 157 | Passing yards allowed | 200 |
| 74 | Rushing yards allowed | 46 |
| 2.9 | Net yards per play | 1.9 |
🚑 Commanders vs. Packers injury report
📺 Commanders vs. Packers game info
- When: Thursday, Sept. 11
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
- How to watch: Prime Video
❓ Commanders vs. Packers FAQs
Who is favored to win Commanders vs. Packers?
The Packers are the betting favorite for TNF, with their moneyline odds ranging from -180 to -190.
What is the spread for Commanders vs. Packers?
The Packers are the 3.5-point betting favorite (-105) for TNF.
What is the Over/Under for Commanders vs. Packers?
The total is set at either 48 or 48.5 points, with -105 for the Over and -115 on the Under for the higher total.
What are the best bets for Commanders vs. Packers?
My best bets are the Packers to cover, the Over on the total, and Jayden Daniels to run for at least 43.5 yards.
When is the Commanders vs. Packers game?
The Commanders vs. Packers TNF starts at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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