Coaching Changes Bettors Can Attack During 2023-24 NFL Season

The 2023-24 NFL season is just around the corner, and plenty of teams are hoping some staff adjustments will help push them over the top. Shane Jackson analyzes the biggest coaching changes of the offseason and how we can bet them this year using the best NFL odds.

With a new football season on the horizon, many fans and bettors are diving into their research for the first time. One of the first steps is looking at the coaching staff for all 32 NFL teams, and seeing if there are any notable changes.

A new coach can have a major impact on a team’s trajectory, especially since they have so much say with personnel and scheme.

Just look at Mike McDaniel (Miami Dolphins) and Brian Daboll (New York Giants), as they led their teams to postseason berths as rookie head coaches last year. Head coach Doug Pederson helped the Jacksonville Jaguars make the latest worst-to-first turnaround with an AFC South crown in Year 1.

In addition to head coaches, coordinators can drastically alter a team’s style of play. A run-first team could become a pass-heavy squad under a new offensive coordinator. Maybe a new defensive coordinator leads to more blitzes for a certain unit.

The question is, how do we take advantage of this as bettors? By doing our homework early, we can try to incorporate some of this information into our handicapping process instead of waiting to see how things play out on the field.

Here is a look at the biggest coaching changes and how we can bet it ahead of the 2023-24 NFL season (odds via our best sports betting apps).

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New head coaches

Frank Reich

Of the five new head coaches in the NFL this year, three of them are at the helm for the first time in their professional careers. Frank Reich and Sean Payton both enter the season with previous head coaching experience.

Reich spent five seasons as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts from 2018 to 2022, leading them to a 40-33-1 overall record and a 1-2 clip in the playoffs. Prior to that, Reich spent four seasons as an offensive coordinator, including two years with the Eagles. 

Five of the nine offenses under Reich's guidance have ranked inside the top 10 in total rushing attempts, including both years in Philadelphia and three of his last four seasons in Indianapolis. Perhaps we should expect the ground game to be more involved to make life easier on rookie quarterback Bryce Young.

Miles Sanders is certainly no Jonathan Taylor, but he enters the year as Carolina's starting running back. His rushing yardage prop has been set at 925.5 yards at DraftKings, despite piling up 1,269 yards on the ground with the Eagles last season.

Sean Payton

After taking the year off, Payton was brought in to bring the Denver offense back to life this season. The Broncos ranked last in the league with an average of 16.9 points per game during Russell Wilson's first season under center. Wilson posted his worst QB rating (84.4) of his career and was sacked 55 times.

Payton produced a 152-89 record in 15 years with the New Orleans Saints, many of which featured Drew Brees as the team's signal caller. The Saints' passing offense dropped off from 2018 to 2021, but they ranked top-five in the league in passing yards for 10 straight seasons once Payton took over in 2007.

Wilson has an Over/Under of 3,700.5 passing yards at FanDuel, a mark he cleared five times in 10 years with the Seattle Seahawks. We prefer to be in wait-and-see mode with this team, especially given how putrid the offense was last season.

New offensive coordinators

Kellen Moore

Of all the new 16 offensive coordinators this season, Kellen Moore's hiring could be the most impactful one. To be honest, he might be more important from a betting perspective than any of the five head coaches.

With Moore calling the plays, the Cowboys were one of the best offenses in the league. Dallas ranked first in total yards in 2019 and 2021, but never ranked outside the top 14 in his four seasons as the OC. The Cowboys led the league in scoring in 2021, while also ranking sixth in 2019 and fourth in 2022.

Quarterback Justin Herbert and this Chargers' offense should be fully unleashed with Moore calling the plays now instead of Joe Lombardi. It is why our Michael McClymont is picking the Chargers as his bet to lead the league in scoring, while Neil Parker likes Herbert's odds to throw for 5,000 yards this year.

Hyping up the Chargers has become an annual tradition at this point, but it honestly might be real this time. We are eying Los Angeles' futures prices at the best NFL betting sites, and looking to bet the team's Overs early and often this year.

Todd Monken

The Ravens' offense could look a lot different this year. They ranked top three in the league in total rushing attempts during three of the four season with Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. The offense featured a lot of power-run concepts, leading to an MVP season for quarterback Lamar Jackson in 2019.

But the offensive philosophy grew stagnant, particularly in the passing game, which led to a change at offensive coordinator. Todd Monken comes to Baltimore after spending three seasons with the Georgia Bulldogs, who have won back-to-back national championships in college football.

There isn't as much mystery regarding Monken, however, as he has four years of offensive coordinator experience at the NFL level. Monken spent three years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2016 to 2018, posting a pair of top-five passing seasons with a combination of Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.

Jackson is a much better QB than either of them, so we should expect No. 8 to have his best passing season yet. Jackson's regular-season passing touchdown prop of 22.5 at DraftKings stands out to me, which is the lowest mark among our best sports betting sites. Jackson has thrown for 26-plus touchdowns in both seasons that he has played more than 12 games.

New defensive coordinators

Brian Flores

Brian Flores has been in the league since 2004 but arrives in Minnesota after spending one season as the linebackers coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He served as head coach of the Miami Dolphins for three years from 2019 to 2021, posting a 24-25 overall clip.

The Vikings have struggled on the defensive side of the ball of late, ranking 24th or worse in scoring defense in each of the last three years. They have not finished better than 27th in the yardage department over that span, either.

As a result, this has been an easy to team to target Overs on, particularly once Kevin O'Connell came into the picture last season to give the offense a boost. Flores can get just as much improvement out of a defense, so we shouldn't assume the Vikings will continue to have defensive limitations in 2023.

We will continue to monitor the early markets at the best sportsbooks to see if there are any defensive angles worth attacking this season.

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