Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: NFL Sao Paulo Best Bets
We're continuing our NFL predictions for Week 1 with my Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction for tonight's game in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Kickoff is at 8 p.m. ET (YouTube) from Corinthians Arena, with the Chiefs a 3-point betting favorite. Our best NFL picks back Kansas City to win in a low-scoring affair and Omarion Hampton to go Over his rushing yards prop.
Our Isaiah Sirois is also offering his three best Chiefs vs. Chargers player props, including the Under on Patrick Mahomes' passing yardage.
🏈 Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction
NFL expert picks odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Chiefs (-169 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Chargers +3.5 (-125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 46.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Chiefs vs. Chargers preview & best bet
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
⚡️ Chargers +3.5 (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have won seven straight games against the Chargers. And this game with a low point spread should again play into Kansas City’s hands after a year in which it finished 10-0 in one-score games. So while I am not backing Los Angeles to pull the outright upset given Patrick Mahomes’ magic in tight games - he's Gary Pearson's No. 1 QB in the NFL Clutch Ratings - the competitiveness of this rivalry has me taking the underdogs with the points as my Chiefs vs. Chargers best bet.
Four of Los Angeles’ last seven losses to Kansas City have been by three or fewer points, not including an overtime loss where the Chiefs scored a touchdown to end it.
This is the kind of game that Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh lives for. Kansas City is not likely to blow the doors off the Chargers offensively, coming off a season where it ranked 31st in explosive plays (75), 23rd in yards per play (5.1), and 29th in yards per rush.
I am rushing to make this wager at BetMGM, even at the higher -125 juice. It is the only one of the best sports betting sites still offering a spread of +3.5, and that extra half-point is crucial compared to all other competitors now at +3. A $10 winning wager would net $8 in profits.
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💰 Best Chiefs vs. Chargers player prop bet
Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Omarion Hampton to record 50+ rushing yards (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Chargers are privy to the fact that a more successful running game helps out their defense and overall chances of success tremendously. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in designed rush percentage, while their opponents’ points per game average was 24th. But when their designed rush percentage was 10th last year, they ranked first in opponents’ points per game.
Los Angeles felt the urgency to use its first-round draft pick on Omarion Hampton after finishing 17th in rushing yards per game last year, the worst rank for a Harbaugh-coached NFL team.
Hampton’s 3,164 rushing yards since 2023 with North Carolina were the second-most of any FBS player. So provided that the Chargers are disciplined enough to stick with the run to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field, this is a total Hampton should surpass.
I am opting for the plus-money odds at DraftKings’ alternate rushing yards, which is great value compared to the -115 odds on the Over of 48.5 yards at BetMGM. At +100 odds, bettors would match their initial wagers in net profits if this wager cashes.
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📊 Chiefs vs. Chargers odds: Week 1
NFL odds update live in real time.
📈 Chiefs vs. Chargers opening odds
- Moneyline: Chiefs -150 | Chargers +125
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-115) | Chargers +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
🔍 Chiefs vs. Chargers odds analysis
There has been some interesting line movement on the point spread since opening at -2.5. Bettors got involved on Kansas City right away, driving the line through the key number of three to -3.5 and as high as -4 at several best sports betting apps. Since then, there has been much more action on Los Angeles, and now the most popular number out there is -3.
The total has risen two points from 44.5 to 46.5. If bettors are influenced by last year’s Brazil game between the Packers and Eagles that had 63 combined points scored, there is still a possibility the total ticks up further before kickoff.
🆕 Latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds
The latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds from BetMGM list the Chiefs as 3-point betting favorites but with -115 odds to cover with a win by at least 4 points. The Chargers' side of the line (+3) carries -102 odds for them to win outright or lose by only 1 or 2 points.
The Over/Under betting total has climbed to 46.5 points as of this morning, with equal -110 odds on either side of the line.
☁️ Chiefs vs. Chargers weather report
The weather should not have too much of an impact on this AFC West matchup in Brazil. It's expected to be cloudy, but if there's rain, it's likely to be minimal. Weather aside, a bigger concern for the Chiefs and Chargers could be the field conditions at Corinthians Arena, which were slippery in last year's Eagles-Packers matchup. The NFL has stated its commitment to improving the field for this year's Sao Paulo game, however.
Check out Liam Fox's full NFL weather report, where we're keeping an eye on the forecast for all 12 outdoor games ahead of this weekend.
🔢 Chiefs vs. Chargers stats
Last season's stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
| Chiefs | Statistic (per game) | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 22.6 | Points | 23.6 |
| 19.2 | Points allowed | 17.7 |
| +6 | Turnover margin | +12 |
| 3,780 | Passing yards | 3,629 |
| 1,790 | Rushing yards | 1,882 |
| 3,720 | Passing yards allowed | 3,517 |
| 1,731 | Rushing yards allowed | 1,997 |
| 5.1 | Net yards per play | 5.4 |
🚑 Chiefs vs. Chargers injury report
📺 Chiefs vs. Chargers game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 5
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Corinthians Arena (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- How to watch: YouTube
💡 More Chiefs vs. Chargers expert picks
- Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction
- Chiefs vs. Chargers player props
- Chiefs vs. Chargers parlay picks
- Chiefs vs. Chargers first touchdown scorer predictions
- Chiefs vs. Chargers anytime touchdown scorer predictions
❓ Chiefs vs. Chargers FAQs
Who is favored to win Chiefs vs. Chargers?
The Chiefs are -166 moneyline betting favorites to beat the Chargers at DraftKings.
What is the spread for Chiefs vs. Chargers?
The Chiefs are 3-point favorites to beat the Chargers.
What is the Over/Under for Chiefs vs. Chargers?
The O/U is 46.5 across all of our best sports betting sites, with most juiced to -110 on each side of the total.
What are the best bets for Chiefs vs. Chargers?
My Chiefs vs. Chargers best bets back Los Angeles getting 3.5 points and for running back Omarion Hampton to rush for 50-plus yards in the game.
When is the Chiefs vs. Chargers game?
The Chiefs vs. Chargers game is on Friday night, with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET.
How do NFL odds work?
When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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