Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction & Opening Odds for NFL Week 9

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, and I offer my early picks for this high-profile matchup with my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.

The opening odds see the Chiefs as a 1.5-point road betting favorite. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). My NFL predictions for Week 9 lay the points with the Chiefs despite them being at a rest disadvantage for this matchup.

🏈 Early Chiefs vs. Bills prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 9.

🔴 Chiefs -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

The results from the Chiefs vs. Bills rivalry of late have been completely different between the regular season and the playoffs. But while Buffalo has won four straight regular-season matchups against Kansas City since 2021, including beating the Chiefs at Highmark Stadium when they entered 9-0 last year, I am siding with the road favorite.

When the Chiefs have a healthy Rashee Rice over the last two seasons, they are 5-0 while averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 5.6 air yards per attempt, and 6.5 yards after the catch per reception. Without Rice in that span, Kansas City is 14-5 while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, 6.8 air yards per attempt, and 5.6 yards after the catch per reception.

With Kansas City as a double-digit favorite for its Monday Night Football matchup against Washington, I am making this wager now in case the line inflates more should it win convincingly like it is expected to do. 

All of the best sports betting sites are in unison with Kansas City as a 1.5-point favorite at -110 odds. The -110 price carries a 52.38% implied probability and would net $9.09 in profits if the Chiefs cover.

📊 Live Chiefs vs. Bills odds: Week 9

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 9.

🔢 Chiefs vs. Bills opening odds

• Moneyline: Chiefs +130 | Bills -155
• Spread: Chiefs +2.5 (-110) | Bills -2.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)

↔️ Chiefs vs. Bills line movement

Buffalo went from a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line to 1.5-point underdogs despite scoring on seven of its first eight possessions in a 40-9 win over Carolina in Week 8. 

This line should never reach the key number of three and could even come back closer to a pick-em if Kansas City does not look impressive on Monday night. I also expect Buffalo to receive the majority of the point spread wagers, considering it has won four straight games as home underdogs. The total also saw vast line movement, rising from an opening number of 48.5 to as high as 51.5. That is likely the ceiling for this total, as few outdoor NFL games this year have kicked off with a total of 52-plus points.

📈 Chiefs vs. Bills trends & betting notes

• The Chiefs and Bills have combined for 51-plus points in three straight matchups, cashing the Over in each
• Patrick Mahomes is 1-4 SU and ATS in the regular season against Josh Allen, and 4-0 SU/ATS against him in the playoffs
• Josh Allen just had a streak of four games with multiple touchdown passes snapped
• Entering last year’s AFC Championship Game matchup, Mahomes was 27-9-1 ATS as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog

📺 How to watch Chiefs vs. Bills

• Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
• Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
• TV: CBS