Chiefs vs. Cardinals Week 1 NFL Picks: Arizona Will Miss Hopkins in Season Opener

The Arizona Cardinals will be without a key piece of their offense in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 11, 2024 2:42 PM EDT • 4 minute read

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Two playoff teams from 2021 meet in Week 1 as the Arizona Cardinals host the Kansas City Chiefs. We’re breaking down the betting with our Chiefs-Cardinals picks.

The 2021 season ended in disappointing fashion for the Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals after each team flashed signs of brilliance.

Arizona started a campaign 7-0 for the first time since 1974, but injuries to Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were big reasons it went 5-6 over the final 11 games. Conversely, Kansas City was three quarters away from a trip to the Super Bowl, but the team squandered a 21-3 first-half lead at home during the AFC Championship Game.

Here are our Chiefs-Cardinals NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Chiefs vs. Cardinals Game Info

Date: Sunday, September 11, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Weather: Indoors

Chiefs vs. Cardinals Odds Analysis

Sportsbooks clearly thought there was a liability with the opening number of Chiefs -3. It reached a high of -6 without an overflow of money on the favorite. Kansas City has attracted 64% of the bets and 62% of the handle.

The total hasn't moved nearly as much, only fluctuating between 53 and 53.5. There's been much more action on the Over, as it's getting 85% of the bets and 89% of the cash.

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Chiefs vs. Cardinals Picks

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Chiefs vs. Cardinals ATS Pick

Chiefs -5.5 (-115) ★★

The Cardinals will be without Hopkins, as he was suspended for six games after testing positive for a banned performance-enhancing substance. Much of Arizona’s late-season collapse in 2021 came with Hopkins out due to an injury, so his absence will make an impact again when facing one of the league's most talented teams.

Murray’s completion percentage dropped from 71.6% with Hopkins on the field to 63.1% without him. So did his passing touchdowns per attempt (5.9% to 2.4%). Arizona’s yard differential also went from plus-62 with Hopkins and Murray on the field to minus-26 in Weeks 15 through the wild-card game without its stud receiver.

Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is 9-15 against the spread during home games, while Andy Reid’s Chiefs teams typically cover early in the season, going 23-13 ATS in Weeks 1-4.

This line hasn't moved enough to prevent us from backing the favorites. Make this wager at FanDuel, as it's one of the few books offer 5.5.

Chiefs vs. Cardinals O/U Pick

Under 53.5 (-107) ★★★★

Arizona averaged 18.8 points per game during the final five contests it played without Hopkins in 2021, an 11.4-point decrease from the 30.2 points it averaged with him on the field. However, this bet is not all about the Cardinals’ likely dip offensively, as Kansas City is playing its first game during the post-Tyreek Hill era.

Hill was a frequent target for Patrick Mahomes, with 24% of the quarterback’s pass attempts going his way. It'll be difficult to replicate the 198 receptions, 2,515 receiving yards, and 24 touchdowns Hill amassed over the last two seasons. His absence will also completely change how teams defend Kansas City.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster aren't capable of taking the top off the defense like Hill his blazing speed. Look for the Cardinals' secondary to not be spread as thin, which means more attention can be paid to All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce.

Chiefs vs. Cardinals Prop Pick

Murray Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114) ★★

The Cardinals' big-play ability was also affected without Hopkins in 2021. Murray’s time in the pocket decreased by .04 seconds, and he completed 3.6% fewer throws of 20-plus yards.

Additionally, Hopkins’ absence is felt most in the red zone. With less time to throw and no go-to threat near the end zone, look for Murray to do more with his legs than usual.

Where to Bet on Chiefs-Cardinals Picks

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Chiefs-Cardinals picks made 9/9/2022 at 10:08 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”