Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions & Opening Odds: Christmas Day NFL Preview
One team in this AFC West rivalry still has plenty to play for as I make my early picks and Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions for Christmas Day. The opening odds have Denver as anywhere from an 11.5 to 13-point favorite ahead of kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday (Prime Video).
With the AFC's top seed in reach, I am backing Denver to cover this large spread on the strength of a dominant defensive performance as part of my NFL Week 17 predictions.
🏈 Early Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction & betting preview
Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 17.
Broncos -11.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Things went from bad to worse for Kansas City last week, losing to a previously two-win Titans team the week after Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL.
Kansas City looked lifeless with season-lows in points (nine) and total yards (133), especially after it lost Gardner Minshew early to a knee injury. So while Denver allowed 30 points last week for the first time since Week 7, I don't expect much from a Chiefs offense led by Chris Oladokun.
FanDuel is the only top sports betting site with a point spread less than -12.5, so the full point more of value is worth the steeper -115 odds (53.49% implied probability). A $10 wager would net $8.70 in profit if the Broncos cover.
💡 More Week 17 predictions
Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 17.
📊 Live Broncos vs. Chiefs odds: Christmas Day
See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 17.
Broncos vs. Chiefs opening odds
- Moneyline: Broncos -238 | Chiefs +195
- Spread: Broncos -5.5 (-110) | Chiefs +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
Broncos vs. Chiefs line movement
Denver is currently the only double-digit favorite in Week 17, which is no surprise after Kansas City lost by 17 to one of the NFL’s worst teams.
It would take a combination of sharp and public action to drive this spread to the key number of -14. The Broncos could also take their foot off the gas late with a Week 18 game against the Chargers looming to potentially decide the AFC West and the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
As of this writing, FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 36.5, as the rest of the market is at 37.5. But I expect more sportsbooks to come down to 36.5 as opposed to FanDuel aligning with the rest of the market, given Kansas City’s offensive ineptitude last week.
📈 Broncos vs. Chiefs trends & betting notes: Christmas Day
- Kansas City has won nine straight home games against Denver
- Bo Nix is 16-2 SU as a favorite and 6-9 SU as an underdog
- Kansas City is 1-7 ATS against teams over .500 this season
- Andy Reid’s teams are 4-4 SU and ATS with a backup quarterback since 2013
📺 How to watch Broncos vs. Chiefs: Christmas Day
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: Prime Video
🎁 More NFL expert picks for Christmas Day
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for Christmas Day and more.
- Broncos vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown predictions
- Broncos vs. Chiefs player props
- Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
- Broncos vs. Chiefs same-game parlay
- Chris Oladokun player props
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