Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions & Odds Tonight | Best Bet, TD Pick for Christmas Day
The Chiefs are in the midst of their first four-game losing streak since 2017, and my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions expect their freefall to continue on NFL Christmas Day.
Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video), with the Broncos entering as a 13.5-point betting favorite. If the spread holds at that number, it would make the Chiefs the largest home underdog in franchise history. My NFL Week 17 predictions want no part of that history, so I'm backing the favorite under the key number of seven for the first half.
🏈 Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Christmas Day
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
| Broncos -6.5 first half spread | -124 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Courtland Sutton to score a first half touchdown | +265 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Broncos vs. Chiefs best bet
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Broncos -6.5 first-half spread (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the first meeting between these teams in Week 11, Kansas City pressured Broncos quarterback Bo Nix on just 28% of his dropbacks, the fourth-lowest by the Chiefs to that point.
On the other side, Denver’s defense entered that game on an impressive historical run. The Broncos joined the 2000 Buccaneers as the only team with at least 40 sacks and under a 30% third-down percentage allowed through the first 10 games since 1990.
I'm backing the -6.5 first-half spread through the best price at Caesars, before it aligns with most of the other best sports betting sites at -7.5.
Score prediction: Broncos 28, Chiefs 6
🙌 Best Broncos vs. Chiefs TD pick
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Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos: To score a first-half touchdown (+265) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just five games. But one of those came last week against Titans rookie Cam Ward, who turned in just his third career game with multiple touchdown passes.
Denver may throw less in the second half if it races out to a big lead, so I'm backing Courtland Sutton to score a first-half touchdown.
DraftKings’ +125 anytime touchdown odds are the lowest on the market, but its +265 odds (27.40% implied probability) for Sutton to score in the first half offer great value as the longest available.
📊 Live Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
📈 Broncos vs. Chiefs betting trends
| Broncos | Statistic | Chiefs |
| 12-3 | W-L record | 6-9 |
| 6-9 | ATS record | 5-10 |
| 7-8 | O/U record | 4-11 |
| 5.59 | Yards per play | 5.60 |
| 4.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.57 |
| -4 | Turnover margin | -2 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| L, 34-20 vs. Jaguars | Previous result | L, 26-9 vs. Titans |
🌤️ Broncos vs. Chiefs weather
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every game.
Temperatures will be a mild 63 degrees at kickoff in Kansas City, with the wind chill making it feel like it's in the low 50s throughout the game. Wind (7-mph gusts) and precipitation (2% chance) should not be a factor.
Our Broncos vs. Chiefs weather report takes a deeper dive into the conditions in Kansas City.
🤑 Broncos vs. Chiefs betting splits: Christmas Day
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet type | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos ML (-1000) | 44% | 91% |
| Chiefs ML (+450) | 56% | 9% |
| Broncos -13.5 | 69% | 81% |
| Chiefs -13.5 | 31% | 19% |
| Over 36.5 | 68% | 63% |
| Under 36.5 | 32% | 37% |
📺 How to watch Broncos vs. Chiefs
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: Prime Video
🎁 More NFL expert picks for Christmas Day
See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for Christmas Day and more.
- Broncos vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown predictions
- Broncos vs. Chiefs player props
- Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
- Broncos vs. Chiefs same-game parlay
- Chris Oladokun player props
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