Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions & Odds | Best Bet, TD Pick for Christmas Day
Kansas City is amid its first four-game losing streak since 2017, and my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions expect it to keep reeling. This final game of an NFL Christmas Day tripleheader kicks off from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. at 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).
Denver is a 13.5-point road betting favorite. If the game begins at that number, it would make Kansas City the largest home underdog in its franchise history.
My NFL Week 17 predictions want no part of that history, so I'm backing the favorites at lower than the key betting number of seven for the first half.
🏈 Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction: Christmas Day
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| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
| Broncos -6.5 first half spread | -124 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Courtland Sutton to score a first half touchdown | +265 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Broncos vs. Chiefs best bet
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Broncos -6.5 first-half spread (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the first meeting between these teams in Week 11, Kansas City pressured Broncos quarterback Bo Nix on just 28% of his dropbacks, the fourth-lowest by the Chiefs to that point.
On the other side, Denver’s defense entered that game on an impressive historical run. The Broncos joined the 2000 Buccaneers as the only team with at least 40 sacks and under a 30% third-down percentage allowed through the first 10 games since 1990.
I'm backing the -6.5 first-half spread through the best price at Caesars, before it aligns with most of the other best sports betting sites at -7.5.
Score prediction: Broncos 28, Chiefs 6
🙌 Best Broncos vs. Chiefs TD pick
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Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos: To score a first-half touchdown (+265) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just five games. But one of those came last week against Titans rookie Cam Ward, who turned in just his third career game with multiple touchdown passes.
Denver may throw less in the second half if it races out to a big lead, so I'm backing Courtland Sutton to score a first-half touchdown.
DraftKings’ +125 anytime touchdown odds are the lowest on the market, but its +265 odds (27.40% implied probability) for Sutton to score in the first half offer great value as the longest available.
📊 Live Broncos vs. Chiefs odds
📈 Broncos vs. Chiefs betting trends
| Broncos | Statistic | Chiefs |
| 12-3 | W-L record | 6-9 |
| 6-9 | ATS record | 5-10 |
| 7-8 | O/U record | 4-11 |
| 5.59 | Yards per play | 5.60 |
| 4.93 | Yards allowed per play | 5.57 |
| -4 | Turnover margin | -2 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 1-4 |
| L, 34-20 vs. Jaguars | Previous result | L, 26-9 vs. Titans |
🌤️ Broncos vs. Chiefs weather
Follow our NFL weather report for the latest forecasts for every game.
Temperatures will be a mild 63 degrees at kickoff in Kansas City, with the wind chill making it feel like it's in the low 50s throughout the game. Wind (7-mph gusts) and precipitation (2% chance) should not be a factor.
📺 How to watch Broncos vs. Chiefs
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 25
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- TV: Prime Video
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