Broncos vs. Raiders Picks, Predictions NFL Week 4: Las Vegas Entering Must-Win Territory
The Las Vegas Raiders are 0-3 for the first time in four seasons and are hoping to break into the win column against Russell Wilsons and the Denver Broncos. Here are our picks for the AFC West divisional showdown between the Broncos and Raiders.
The Raiders have won four straight games in the AFC West series with the Broncos. That's part of the reason Denver paid the hefty price to acquire Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks this offseason.
Denver has looked far from great through three weeks but does sit at 2-1. Las Vegas is 0-3 under new head coach Josh McDaniels.
Check out all of our top NFL Week 4 picks here.
Here are our Broncos-Raiders NFL picks for Week 4 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Raiders Game Info
Date: Sunday, Oct. 2, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Weather: Indoors
Broncos vs. Raiders Odds
Broncos vs. Raiders Odds Analysis
The Raiders continue to a favorite of bettors despite their woeful start. The spread has increased from Las Vegas -2 to -2.5 with 68% of the tickets and 76% of the handle expecting the Raiders to cover.
The Over/Under dropped from 46 to 45.5 as of Sunday morning. Fifty-six percent of the tickets and 62% of the handle are on the Under.
Broncos vs. Raiders Picks
- Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
- Over/Under: Under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Prop: Russell Wilson Over 240.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM)
Broncos vs. Raiders ATS Pick
Broncos +2.5 (-105) ★
From a desperation standpoint, the Raiders need a victory or risk dropping to 0-4, and putting themselves in a very deep hole as far as the division race is concerned.
On the flip side of the narrative, the Broncos have been playing exceptional defense. Denver ranks fifth by Football Outsiders' overall defensive DVOA and fourth against the pass. Las Vegas is just 24th by offensive DVOA and only slightly better in the passing game at 20th.
Denver held its last two opponents to a total of 19 points. The Broncos could also finally find some offensive success against a Raiders team that has allowed at least 24 points in each of their first three games and ranks 20th by defensive DVOA.
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Broncos vs. Raiders O/U Pick
Under 45.5 (-110) ★★★★
The Raiders are averaging 21.3 points per contest, while the Broncos are the second-worst scoring team in the NFL at 14.3 points per outing. That aligns with the aforementioned DVOA statistics.
With Denver relying on its defense and unlikely to break out offensively based on what we've seen thus far, the Under is the safest play with the two teams a combined 1-5 against the Over/Under entering Week 4.
Broncos vs. Raiders Prop Pick
Wilson Over 240.5 passing yards (-110) ★★
After passing for 340 yards in the season opener, Wilson’s passing totals have dipped in each of the last two games. He produced 219 and 184 yards, respectively, in Weeks 2 and 3.
However, the weakest part of the Raiders' defense thus far has been the passing game. They're 23rd by DVOA against the pass and allowed Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill to throw for 264 yards on a 70.37 completion percentage last week in Tennessee's first win of the season.
While I don’t expect Wilson to duplicate his Week 1 performance against the Seattle Seahawks, I’m predicting his total will fall between 241 and 250 yards.
Where to Bet on Broncos-Raiders Picks
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Broncos-Raiders picks made 9/29/2022 at 11:35 p.m. ET
