Bills vs. Texans Prediction & Opening Odds for Thursday Night Football: NFL Week 12

The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills from NRG Stadium in Houston for Thursday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video), and my Bills vs. Texans prediction expects the home betting underdog to keep things tight regardless of who is under center. 

The Bills are the 3.5-point betting favorite for the pivotal matchup as they attempt to keep up with AFC East pacesetters New England. The Texans, meanwhile, are just a game behind the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South after successive wins. The picks below are part of the NFL predictions for Week 12. 

🏈 Early Bills vs. Texans prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early NFL picks for Week 12. 

🦬 Texans +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

While we're still awaiting confirmation, it appears unlikely that quarterback C.J. Stroud will win the race against time to suit up on TNF. He was, as of Friday, still experiencing concussion symptoms, making the path to be cleared by Thursday all the murkier. 

If he plays, this pick will get upgraded from three to four stars.

With Davis Mills under center, the Texans are 2-0. The stand-in quarterback enjoyed a productive 274-yard, one-touchdown passing performance in Tennessee, and despite a scare, did what was required to get his team across the line. 

Mills was instrumental in pulling off an improbable comeback victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in his first start of the season, overcoming a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit. While Mills deserves a ton of credit, the Texans' defense is the team's shining star. 

The Texans had the best defensive DVOA entering Week 11 and have conceded the fewest points per game, allowing 20 points or more three times. The Texans are 3-2 straight up and ATS at NRG Stadium, with their two defeats coming by a combined four points. 

They have a rare ability to make Josh Allen appear human, which they did in last season's 23-20 home win over the Bills.

Allen had one of his least productive games of the season at NRG Stadium, with 130 passing yards on 9-for-30. Of the best sports betting sites, BetMGM offers the best price (-105), where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.52. 

📊 Live Bills vs. Texans odds: Week 12

See the latest NFL odds for every game in Week 12.

🔢 Bills vs. Texans opening odds

• Moneyline: Bills -210| Texans +170
• Spread: Bills -4.0 (-115) | Texans +4.0 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.4 (-110)

↔️ Bills vs. Texans line movement

There are indications the line might jump to -4. However, I expect the line to remain mostly steady until Stroud's status is confirmed. If he's able to play, expect the Bills to be the 2.5 or 3-point betting favorite at kickoff. If he doesn't play, the line will likely increase to -4, potentially even -4.5. 

📈 Bills vs. Texans trends & betting notes: TNF 

• The Bills are 2-2 ATS on the road, with outright losses to the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons
• The Texans are 3-6-1 to the Over
• Five of the Bills' 10 games hit the Over
• Three of the five games at NRG Stadium would have been decided by three points or fewer had the final play of the game against the Jaguars not resulted in a Texans' defensive TD.

📺 How to watch Bills vs. Texans: Thursday Night Football

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 20
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Prime Video