Bills vs. Jaguars Week 9 Picks: Buffalo Won’t Look Past Sad-Sack Jacksonville

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 3, 2021 4:54 PM EDT • 3 min 9 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 18: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on October 18, 2021 in Nashville, Tennessee. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by ANDY LYONS / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The biggest mismatch in the NFL this week has the Super Bowl-favorite Buffalo Bills visiting the one-win Jacksonville Jaguars. We look at whether the hosts can cover the big number in our Bills vs Jaguars picks.

This writer would have loved to have seen this spread with the game in Buffalo and in perhaps wintry conditions with everything else the same as it will be on Sunday. Bills -25, perhaps?

Buffalo is 9-8 all-time against Jacksonville, including playoffs, but the teams haven’t met since November 2018 when Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was still at Clemson and head coach Urban Meyer was in his final season at Ohio State. The Bills won 24-21 at home as QB Josh Allen threw for a touchdown and rushed for 99 yards and a TD. The Jaguars were led by QB Blake Bortles.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 9 matchup between the Bills and Jaguars (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Jaguars Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 7, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FLWeather: 70 degrees, mostly sunny

Bills vs. Jaguars Odds Analysis

Buffalo backers might end up kicking themselves if they didn’t bet this spread when it opened at Bills -13.5 because it’s now -14.5 at some books, and may get higher with about a 70 percent lean on the favorites. The underdog is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings.

The total has stayed at 48.5 with about a 50-50 split. The weather certainly will not affect the line as perfect conditions are expected.

Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Picks

Bills -14 (-110) ??? Over 48.5 (-110) ???

Bills vs. Jaguars Betting Predictions

Bills -14 (-110)

Some books still have this at Bills -14. Personally, I would be buying down to -13.5 but for our purposes try to shop around and not get higher than 14 because that’s obviously a magic number.

Also, keep in mind there will not be much of a home-field advantage Sunday for the Jaguars because Bills fans travel incredibly well and this is the time of year when New Yorkers are in Florida anyway. It probably will be half Buffalo fans in the stands on Sunday, at least from a noise perspective.

If the Bills are focused, this won’t be close. They already have blown out bad teams like the Miami Dolphins (twice), Washington Football Team, and Houston Texans by more than 14.5 points. This shouldn’t be any sort of trap game because it’s not like the Bills will be looking ahead to the New York Jets in Week 10.

The Jags entered their Week 7 bye with some momentum off of a Week 6 win over Miami in London to end a 20-game losing skid. However, Meyer didn’t have his team prepared at all on Sunday as Jacksonville was dominated 31-7 on the road against the Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks fill-in QB Geno Smith completed his first 14 passes and set a career-high completion percentage of 83.33. Geno Smith!

The Jags avoided the fourth shutout in franchise history only on a garbage-time TD.

The Bills are 6-1 against rookie quarterbacks under head coach Sean McDermott. In those seven games, the QBs have thrown for only four touchdowns with 17 picks.

Buffalo is 5-0-1 against the spread in its last six games against teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its past five games at home vs. teams with a winning road record.

Over 48.5 (-110)

Buffalo leads the NFL 32.7 points per game and has the fewest points allowed per game (15.6). Only two teams since the merger in 1970 have finished a season leading the NFL in both categories: the 1972 Dolphins and 1996 Green Bay Packers. Both those teams won the Super Bowl that year. Buffalo enters Week 9 as the +500 favorite at DraftKings to win its first Super Bowl.

Allen, an MVP candidate, could be missing one key target in TE Dawson Knox, who broke his hand in Week 6 and hasn’t played since. Knox has 21 catches for 286 yards and five TDs this year, and is considered “day-to-day” after sitting out last week.

Jacksonville’s main injury concern is to No. 1 running back James Robinson (foot). The Jags played most of the final three-quarters without Robinson last week due to a bruised heel, but it’s not serious and he could play in Week 9. He has rushed for 482 yards and five TDs while catching 18 balls for 133 yards.

While the Jags could get to 23 points against the Bills, possibly with another garbage-time TD, it’s easy to see Buffalo scoring at least 30 against a Jacksonville defense allowing 29.0 points and 386.0 yards per game.

The Over is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games on the road. It’s 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last five games after scoring 15 or fewer points in the previous game.