Bills vs. Falcons Expert Picks for Monday Night Football: MNF Player Props, TD Picks & Best Bets
The Buffalo Bills put the best record in the NFL on the line tonight on Monday Night Football (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they face the host Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and our Bills vs. Falcons expert picks break down this matchup from every angle to kick off the MNF doubleheader.
🏈 Bills vs. Falcons expert picks: Monday Night Football
NFL picks for Monday Night Football with pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale; see the latest NFL odds for the best available price.
- Game prediction: Over 49.5 (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer pick: Curtis Samuel to score anytime TD (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- First touchdown pick: Tyler Allgeier to score first TD (+1400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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💰 Best Bills vs. Falcons picks for Monday Night Football
Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.
Best Bills vs. Falcons prediction
Here's what our NFL expert Gary Pearson wrote this week on why he's betting on a shootout tonight in Atlanta to kick off Monday Night Football:
⬆️ Over 49.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Bills are coming off a rare, ineffective offensive outing. The loss to the New England Patriots marked the first time they failed to score 30 points this season. They have scored at least 30 points in 13 of the last 16 games, with all three sub-30-point outings coming against the Patriots.
So, while the Falcons will try to follow New England's successful defensive blueprint, they will likely fail to keep them at bay. Buffalo scored 40 and 31 points, respectively, after the previous two sub-30-point games.
Pearson also breaks down his favorite Over/Under bet and best player prop pick tonight in his Bills vs. Falcons prediction.
Best Bills vs. Falcons player prop pick
Here's why our NFL expert Phil Wood is backing Bijan Robinson as his favorite Over/Under player prop pick for Monday Night Football:
🪶 Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Robinson has accumulated 584 yards in four games, with 314 on the ground and 270 through the air. He’s cleared 110.5 total yards in three of his four games, and he gets a favorable matchup against the Bills’ fifth-worst run defense.
Robinson is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and the Bills are allowing 5.6 yards per attempt. However, I’m taking Robinson’s combined total rather than his rushing total.
Wood is also backing Bills running back James Cook while expecting a clean game tonight from QB Michael Penix Jr. with his Bills vs. Falcons player props.
Best Bills vs. Falcons anytime touchdown scorer pick
Here's why our NFL expert Esten McLaren is betting on Curtis Samuel to score a touchdown as one of his best anytime TD picks for Monday Night Football:
💪 Curtis Samuel to score anytime TD (+600) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I'm not willing to pay the premium on any of the Bills' marquee offensive pieces to score tonight. Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell is also expected to return, bolstering the already elite pass defense.
Instead, I'm looking further down the Bills' depth chart at Curtis Samuel. He played 49% of the snaps last week and scored a touchdown on one of his two receptions (26 yards). Samuel will feature in trick plays as Buffalo will need to get creative against this Falcons defense that's coming off a bye to prepare for Monday Night Football.
McLaren is also betting on Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier, while offering two bets for the second MNF game tonight, in his Monday Night Football anytime touchdown scorer predictions.
Best Bills vs. Falcons first touchdown scorer pick
Here's why our NFL expert Corey Scott is betting on Tyler Allgeier to score the first touchdown on Monday Night Football:
🥇 Tyler Allgeier to score first TD (+1400) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Tyler Allgeier is not the most likely player to score first in this matchup - teammate Bijan Robinson has more carries - this price is too good to pass up.
Allgeier has scored twice over the past three games, including cashing as the first TD scorer in a Sept. 14 win at the Vikings. These +1400 odds carry an implied probability of 6.67%, which is too low considering Allgeier leads the Falcons with two rushing touchdowns through their first four games.
Scott is also targeting Bills receiver Keon Coleman, while offering three more first TD picks for the second MNF game, in his Monday Night Football first touchdown scorer predictions.
Best Bills vs. Falcons same-game parlay
Here's what our NFL expert Brenden Schaeffer has cooked up for his best Bills vs. Falcons same-game parlay for Monday Night Football:
🚀 Best Bills vs. Falcons parlay for MNF
- Under 49.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kyle Pitts Under 3.5 receptions (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bijan Robinson Under 73.5 rushing yards (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +525 via FanDuel ($10 to win $52.50)
📺 How to watch Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Falcons
- Date: Monday, Oct. 13
- Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: ESPN
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