Bills vs. Broncos Prediction & Odds: NFL Divisional Round Best Bet, Preview

Well-rested Denver welcomes Buffalo to Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS), and I'm backing the No. 1 seed to advance in my Bills vs. Broncos prediction. 

The Bills are the 1.5-point betting favorite despite entering a hostile environment in the Mile High City, where the home team won eight of nine games during the regular season. In my Divisional Round predictions, I analyze how Bo Nix and Co. can avoid a similar fate that befell Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round. 

Gary Pearson has a different take on this game, which he discusses in his updated Bills vs. Broncos prediction.

🏈 Bills vs. Broncos early prediction: NFL Divisional Round

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Broncos ML (+106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bills escaped Jacksonville despite a season-low 79 rushing yards. The NFL's best rushing offense was neutralized by the Jaguars' top-ranked rush defense.

The matchup doesn't get any easier this week against the league's No. 2 rush defense, and it will be more difficult for Josh Allen to rescue Buffalo this time around.

The Broncos had the fifth-most sacks in NFL history while averaging over nine quarterback hits per game.

I foresee an already banged-up Allen scraping himself off the turf plenty in Denver. FanDuel offers the best odds on the Broncos moneyline at +106.

📊 Bills vs. Broncos odds: NFL Divisional Round

Bills vs. Broncos opening odds

• Moneyline: Bills -125 | Broncos +105
• Spread: Bills -1.5 (-110) | Broncos +1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Broncos line movement

The market clearly doesn't believe in the Broncos. I expect the spread to move further in the Bills' direction after opening at -1.5, as 74% of the early wagers at BetMGM have been on Buffalo to cover. As I'm backing the Broncos this week, I'm going to wait on that line movement before placing my wager on Denver.

Meanwhile, 77% of bets have been on the Under, so I'd grab that 46.5 total now before it goes lower in what I anticipate to be a defensive struggle at Mile High.

📈 Bills vs. Broncos trends & betting notes: NFL Divisional Round

• The Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 in the Wild Card Round last season
• Denver is 2-0 outright this season as a home underdog
• Broncos games are 7-10 to the Under

📺 How to watch Bills vs. Broncos: NFL Divisional Round

• Date: Saturday, Jan. 17
• Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS