Bills vs. Jets Picks, Predictions Week 9: Follow Divisional Under Trend
The AFC-leading Buffalo Bills and surprising New York Jets meet for the first time in 2022. Can the 5-3 Jets keep up with the 6-1 Bills? Find out where we lean in our Bills-Jets picks.
The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites entering just their second division game of the season, against the New York Jets.
While division battles are often filled with surprises, there has been one near certainty this season: intra-division battles have been resulting in Unders at an alarming rate. The league's record against the Over/Under line in division games is 24-54-2.
Will that trend continue Sunday in this AFC East matchup?
Here are our Bills-Jets picks for Week 9 (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Bills vs. Jets Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 6, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Weather: 59 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 8-mph winds
Bills vs. Jets Odds
Bills vs. Jets Odds Analysis
When the week opened, the Bills were favored by 13 points, but that line has steadily declined to -11, where it can be found now. There are still some -11.5s hanging around at various books, such as FanDuel. Buffalo is drawing 70% of the cash and 74% of the tickets.
The total opened at 47.5 and it's since dropped a point and a half to 46. The Over is getting 51% of the cash and 60% of the tickets.
Bills vs. Jets Picks
Bills vs. Jets ATS Pick
Bills -11 (-107) ★★
The Bills are a juggernaut at 6-1, but their against the spread record is 4-2-1. They covered a vast 10-point spread in Week 2 with a 41-7 beatdown of the Tennessee Titans and an even wider 14-point margin with 38-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5. But they failed to cover the 10.5-point spread last week in their 27-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
Now, they're favored by 11 points over a division rival that is 5-3 ATS. Two of the Jets' three defeats were of blowout fashion.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen owns a 5-2 career record over the Jets. Buffalo has won the last four head-to-head matchups, and the two meetings last season weren't particularly competitive. The Bills won 45-17 last November with Jets QB Zach Wilson out with injury. They then won 27-10 in New York and Wilson went 7-for-20 for 87 yards in the contest.
Though the talent has improved around Wilson, he has yet to make the leap in his second season. Expect the Bills to cover the double-digit spread.
Bills vs. Jets O/U Pick
Under 46 (-107) ★★★
While the public is on the Over, the sharps are on the Under, and that's our suggested play as well.
The Bills' Over/Under record is a surprising 1-6. Though Buffalo owns the league's No. 1 total offense and No. 2 scoring offense, the team's last five games have failed to reach this point total.
The Jets' last three contests have gone Under, including last week's 22-17 loss to the division-rival New England Patriots.
Both teams own defenses that rank within the top six in the league. While the Bills should score enough to cover the spread, Wilson and the Jets will struggle to keep up their end of the bargain against a Buffalo defense that ranks in the top 10 in most major categories, including No. 1 in scoring defense.
Bills vs. Jets Prop Pick
Allen Over 41.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★
The Bills bolstered their backfield by trading for pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines, but that won't ease the rushing burden on Allen. When it comes to earning the tough yards or converting a crucial third down on the ground, the responsibility will still fall on the bruising 6-foot-5 quarterback.
Allen has cleared this rushing total in four of his last five games. He's reached 42 yards on as few as five carries as he did in Week 5 against Pittsburgh.
Where to bet on Bills vs. Jets Picks
Bills-Jets picks made 11/4/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET
