NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 9: Will Chiefs Dominate Off Bye Week Once Again?
There are few sure things in life, but the old adage may change soon to "death, taxes, and Andy Reid off a bye week." We dive into that and more in our list of Week 9 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.
For example, head-to-head data between two teams that dates back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top four NFL trends to know for Week 9 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top picks for Week 9!
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 9
Chiefs (-520) vs. Titans
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s teams are 20-3 straight up in the regular season following a bye week
Reid's 87% winning percentage off a bye week is the best all-time of any NFL head coach. His teams are also 12-1 SU at home off bye weeks and are 8-1 SU in his time in Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes as his starting quarterback.
The fact that this game has an Over/Under of 46.5 is also significant, as Kansas City is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 regular-season games that kicked off with a total of fewer than 50 points. The latest such instance was the Chiefs' easy cover as 1-point favorites in a 44-23 victory over San Francisco in Week 7, a game that had an O/U of 49 points.
Kansas City has also been prone to avoiding upsets, as the team is 14-0 SU in its previous 14 games as favorites of at least seven points. Meanwhile, Tennessee has covered the spread in each of its last five games.
Look out for underdogs of more than three points in Week 9
Underdogs of more than three points are 49-26 (65.3%) ATS this season
There were eight such underdogs of more than three points in Week 8, and those teams went 5-4 ATS.
Out of the 13-game Week 9 slate, there are again eight teams at least +3.5 or higher. Those teams are the Houston Texans (+13.5), New York Jets (+12.5), Chicago Bears (+4.5), Washington Commanders (+3.5), Indianapolis Colts (+6), Detroit Lions (+3.5), Carolina Panthers (+8.5), and Tennessee Titans (+11). Five of those teams are home underdogs this week.
Bills-Jets Under 47.5, Packers-Lions Under 49, Seahawks-Cardinals Under 49
Unders in division games are 27-12-1 (69.2%)
Unders, in general, are hitting at a high clip this season, going 70-51-2 overall, and are an even more profitable 15-9-1 in primetime games. However, the most lucrative way to bet Unders so far this season is as part of divisional games, three of which are on the Week 9 slate.
Of the three matchups, only the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals have played already this year, easily cashing the Under in a 19-9 game with a projected total of 50.5 points.
Ravens (-165) vs. Saints
Lamar Jackson is 13-1 SU in his 14 career starts against NFC opponents
Lamar Jackson has faced NFC opponents twice in the last three weeks, losing on the road to the New York Giants but beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. However, he has not been as successful against the spread in those matchups, covering just six of the 14 games. He is also 37-13 SU as a favorite (23-27 ATS) and is 19-11 ATS on the road in his career.
In primetime games, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback is 11-6 SU and 9-8 ATS. He faces a New Orleans Saints team that has covered once in its last nine games at the Caesars Superdome when facing teams with a winning record.
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