NFL Betting Trends to Know for Week 11: Back Underdogs in Low-Scoring Games
Entering Week 11, the New York Jets are the only team to have already cashed the Over on their preseason projected win total, and a handful of others can clinch a push of their Overs or Unders this week. We dive into that and more with our Week 11 trends to know in the NFL.
One of the most challenging things for novice NFL bettors is to sift through the countless trends in each game and determine their relevance or impact on the game at hand.
For example, head-to-head data between two teams dating back to the 1970s provide little insight since none of the players taking the field were born at that time. Thus, we aim to give you the most relevant information and trends to use when making your weekly wagers.
Here are our top four NFL trends to know for Week 11 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Top NFL Betting Trends for Week 11
Jets-Patriots Under 38.5, Chiefs-Chargers Under 50
The Under is 22-15 involving two teams that both cashed the Under in their previous games.
Last week, this trend went 2-2, as the Broncos-Titans and Jaguars-Chiefs games stayed under the projected total, while the Colts-Raiders and Vikings-Bills games each cashed the Overs. There are two such games this week, both involving division rivals.
That notion overlaps another trend - Unders in divisional games are 29-16-1 this season. However, the Over was 3-1 in last week’s four such instances, which suggests oddsmakers may have made the necessary adjustments and corrected this market.
None of these four teams are profitable to the Over, and the best O/U record of any team in this bunch is 4-5.
Titans +130, Jets +140, Rams +120, Texans +115, Raiders +135, Steelers +170
Underdogs are 20-21 straight-up in games with totals of 42 or fewer points this season.
There were six such instances of this trend last week, and those underdogs went 4-2 SU. Among the victorious teams were the Panthers, Colts, Steelers, and Cardinals, while the underdogs who lost such low-total games were the Texans and Broncos. Entering last week, underdogs were 16-19 SU in these spots but were returning a plus-34.8% return on investment. That is a much better success rate than the previous three years for this trend, as those underdogs were a combined 32-78-1 (.291) for a minus-20.7% ROI from 2019 to 2021.
The Jets are looking to end a historic streak of 13 consecutive losses to the Patriots, while the Rams enter with a six-game November losing streak. In addition, Denver has lost six straight games against division rivals. At the same time, Pittsburgh continues to be profitable as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, winning seven of its last eight games outright as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Tennessee is an underdog despite going 6-1 SU in its last seven games.
Bears +3
Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in its previous four games after starting the season 6-0 ATS.
Compared to the last two teams that started with six consecutive covers, the Falcons have had much less success following a dominant ATS start to the season. The 2021 Cowboys finished 7-5 ATS in their final 12 games, while the Chiefs went 4-7-1 down the stretch after a 6-0 ATS start.
In addition, the 4-6 Falcons can clinch a push of their preseason win total (five) with a victory against Chicago. Along with Atlanta, the Giants are positioned to exceed their seven-win preseason prediction as they enter this week 7-2.
Lions-Giants Under 46.5
The Under is 16-1 in the Giants’ last 17 home games.
The Giants have a long stretch of playing low-scoring games at Metlife Stadium, cashing the Under in 16 of their last 17 home games. Before last week’s 24-16 victory over Houston stayed Under the 41.5-point projected total, the previous 15 instances went Under the projected total by an average of nine points per game.
In addition, New York home Unders are 17-6 with Daniel Jones as the team’s starting quarterback.
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