NFL Betting Guide Week 1: The Smart Way to Bet $100 This Week

Whether you are a novice sports bettor or have years of experience wagering on games, the most important key to success is managing your bankroll, and our NFL betting guide to Week 1 is here to help your NFL picks.

I'm offering my best picks and how I'd split up a $100 bankroll, so you can scale these picks to whatever your budget is while tracking all of our NFL predictions for Week 1.

💵 NFL Betting Guide: Week 1

NFL expert picks made Friday; check the latest NFL odds for the best odds.

Want to calculate these bets for your own budget? Check out our odds converter to determine the profit for any wager amount.

🗽 Giants +6 ($30)

One thing I want to establish from the onset of this weekly column is that I am a big advocate of fading the public and going against the most popular teams of the week. That type of thinking would have been hugely profitable in college football last week, as the top-five most bet teams all failed to cover (and four lost outright). 

Early betting splits are 2:1 in favor of the Washington Commanders over the New York Giants, yet the line has dipped from an opening number of -7 to as low as -5.5 across the best sports betting sites.

That suggests a wager on the Giants puts bettors on the same side as the sharps (usually the right place to be), and it backs the trend that underdogs of at least six points in Week 1 have covered the spread 60% of the time since 2010.

A $30 winning wager at these -110 odds via bet365 would return $27.27 in profits with a 52.38% implied probability.

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⬇️ Steelers-Jets Under 38.5 ($25)

This is the lowest total from the 16-game slate in Week 1, and it still isn’t low enough to prevent me from backing the Under.

Is Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off career lows in yards per attempt and yards per dropback last season with the New York Jets, going to sling it all over the yard with his new teammates that he had limited opportunities to build rapport with?

Aaron Glenn is a defensive-minded head coach who would love nothing more than to win a rock fight in his coaching debut, and the low total should not scare you away from this wager if you believe the defenses will have the advantage early.

The best return on this $25 wager comes from DraftKings, the only sportsbook charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the Under. Through its -108 odds (which carry a 51.92% implied probability), a winning wager would net $23.15 in profits.

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🪖 Patriots ML ($20)

This is a matchup of two head coaches making their debuts with their new teams. While Pete Carroll brings a Super Bowl ring and loads more coaching experience to the Las Vegas Raiders, I am high on Mike Vrabel’s New England Patriots this year, especially after they added several veterans on defense and at the skill positions.

The Patriots finished last place in the AFC East for the second consecutive year, but quarterback Drake Maye showed flashes as a rookie - ranking 22nd among the 58 first-year quarterbacks since 2000 in touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.5) and yards per attempt (6.7). On a side note, the sophomore currently ranks 28th in Gary Pearson's NFL clutch ratings.

I would pass on the point spread if New England ever got to -3, but with this line being under a field goal, a straight-up moneyline wager makes the most sense. You'll want to bet this at FanDuel, which features -142 odds that would return a $14.08 profit on a winning $20 wager - much better than the -155 odds on the short end of the market.

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🐂 Texans ML + Under 44.5 ($10)

If the Houston Texans are going to upset the Los Angeles Rams on the road in Week 1, it is likely going to be in a defensive struggle. Los Angeles cannot be trusted as home favorites without knowing how Matthew Stafford’s back injury will hold up, and Houston did well to fortify its offensive line with deals for Laken Tomlinson and Cam Robinson.

I am betting this parlay at Caesars, the only sportsbook with a total at 44 while also offering the best moneyline price at +315. The combined parlay odds of +315 would turn a $10 wager into a $31.50 profit with an implied probability of 24.10%.

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Saquon Barkley to score 2+ touchdowns ($10) ❌

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley has as high as a 66.67% implied probability of scoring at least one touchdown on Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys. But he is also facing a defense that allowed 175-plus rushing yards in six games last year while surrendering 25 rushing touchdowns in total - their most allowed in a single season in franchise history.

That makes taking a flier on Barkley to again torch his division rival an appealing play using a small portion of our budget. BetMGM features +300 odds for this wager - a steal compared to +270 odds elsewhere - and a winning $10 wager would add $30 to our total profits for the week.

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🚀 Derrick Henry + Jahmyr Gibbs + Jonathan Taylor to combine for 300+ rush yards ($5)

I would not advise making a “home run” type of play like this as anything more than a $5 or $10 bet, but this one feels feasible and not a total dart throw.

These three running backs all finished in the top five in rushing yards last year, and Henry and Taylor have combined to lead the league in rushing three times. Henry alone ran for 283 yards against the Buffalo Bills last year, so he has a great chance to make a dent in this 300-yard total by himself in Sunday's rematch.

This wager can be found under DraftKings’ “player specials” options. At these +500 odds, which carry a 16.67% implied probability, we would multiply our initial wager by five and net $25 in profits on a winning wager.

💡 NFL expert picks for Week 1

• NFL picks against the spread Week 1
• NFL QB clutch player ratings Week 1
• NFL fantasy pickup player props Week 1
• NFL rookie player props Week 1
• NFL trends that matter Week 1
• NFL weather report Week 1
• NFL survivor picks Week 1
• NFL upset picks Week 1
• NFL betting guide: How to bet Week 1 on a $100 budget
• NFL long-shot parlay Week 1
• NFL live betting guide Week 1
• NFL moneyline picks Week 1
• NFL AI predictions Week 1
• NFL player props Week 1
• NFL Watchability Index Week 1

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