Best NFL Long Shot Parlay for Week 1: Moneyline Picks for Every Game

Are you a badass parlay picker, or do you want to be? Join me all season as I cook up some magical long-shot parlays, including one that features a moneyline pick for every game.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: September 4, 2025 10:50 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Best NFL Long Shot Parlay for Week 1: Moneyline Picks for Every Game — Pictured: Trevor Lawrence throws during the first half against the New Orleans Saints. Photo by Matthew Hinton via Imagn Images.

Who doesn't love sitting on the edge of their seat while sweating a good old parlay?

My best NFL long-shot parlay for Week 1 will get those accumulator juices flowing, as I offer three separate parlays, one of which is an extension of my best and most likely, according to the implied win probability.

To cap things off for these NFL picks, which complement the NFL predictions for Week 1, I offer a 16-leg behemoth, which features a moneyline pick for every game.

💰 My best NFL parlay picks for Week 1

Our parlay calculator shows the best NFL odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

This five-leg parlay features two giant moneyline betting favorites, a moderate moneyline favorite, and two Under picks.

My Chiefs vs. Chargers prediction and Vikings vs. Bears prediction explain in detail why I'm backing the Under.

For the season opener tonight, I went with the whopping betting favorite, backing the -430 moneyline favorite Philadelphia Eagles to not only get off to a winning start, but to keep the parlay alive for Friday night in Sao Paulo, hopefully.

The Washington Commanders should take care of business at home against the G-Men. That should, fingers crossed, leave the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. It's Seattle's first kick of the can with Sam Darnold under center.

That setup could take some time, and I'm bullish on 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey enjoying a superb Week 1 outing. If all five legs hit, a $10 bet at FanDuel will yield a $111 profit.

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🎯 My best NFL long-shot parlay for Week 1

I added two legs to this parlay from my best parlay pick above, making it a seven-leg parlay with odds of +3350. A winning $10 bet will yield a profit of $334.96.

The additions?

I expect Trevor Lawrence to have an excellent opener against a feeble Carolina Panthers defense. He's motivated and has a new lease on life with offensive wizard Liam Coen at the helm. Our Matt Burke is also sweet on Lawrence for the opener, which he covered in his Week 1 fantasy waiver wire picks and best player props.

The second pick sees Mike Evans amassing at least 66 receiving yards in Atlanta against a Falcons defense that has a middling secondary and a pass rush that is too heavily dependent on rookies.

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🚀 My best NFL moneyline parlay picks for every game

Imagine winning $32,602 on a $10 16-leg moneyline parlay. Well, that's what I've cooked up for Week 1. It feels like I've been writing on a chalkboard all day, as the residual chalk on my finger found its way to most of these moneyline picks.

I backed the betting favorite on 12 of 16 picks, three of which were featured in my Week 1 NFL picks against the spread. I did, however, back four underdogs to get off to a 1-0 start, which helped significantly in increasing the odds of this monstrous parlay to +325915.

If I hit this behemoth and you tail it, you'll earn a profit of $32,601.53 on a $10 bet at FanDuel. If you want to be more conservative, toss in $2, and you could win $6,518.27. The implied probability of doing so, however, is 0.03%.

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New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

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Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

❓NFL parlay betting FAQs

What is a parlay bet in the NFL?

A parlay combines multiple bets (spreads, totals, props, or moneylines) into one wager, with all selections needing to win for the bet to cash. Parlays are popular in NFL betting because they offer bigger payouts.

How do NFL parlay odds work?

Parlay odds are calculated by multiplying the odds of each individual selection, which increases both the potential payout and the risk. The more legs you add, the higher the reward but the lower the probability of winning.

Are parlays a smart betting strategy for the NFL?

Parlays can be fun for chasing large payouts but are harder to win consistently. Many sharp bettors prefer single-game wagers, but NFL parlay bets can add excitement when used responsibly.

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work and NFL experience has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.