NFL Best Bets for Week 5: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

With the Thursday night game already in the books, it’s time to dive into the weekend slate for our NFL best bets for Week 5. 

This week’s NFL picks back our best moneyline parlay and fade a trend on a team total, while making our best player prop and anytime touchdown scorer wagers. It’s all part of our NFL predictions for Week 5.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 5

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Lions + Chiefs ML parlay (-116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Commanders-Chargers Over 47.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Buccaneers team total Under 20.5 (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Cam Skattebo anytime touchdown scorer (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• A.J. Brown Under 61.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🦁 + 🔴  Lions + Chiefs moneyline parlay (-116) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Kansas City Chiefs leg of this parlay provides the most value, as their standalone moneyline odds are -178. It should not be understated what the return of wide receiver Xavier Worthy meant for the offense in last week’s rout of the Baltimore Ravens.

Worthy has been on the field for 44 plays. In that span, the Chiefs have four passing touchdowns, averaged 6.9 yards per play, and completed 71% of their passes. In the 208 plays Worthy has been off the field, Kansas City has just three passing touchdowns, averaged 4.9 yards per play, and completed 59% of its passes.

Mahomes was pressured on a season-low 27% of his dropbacks last week, and is looking to improve to 6-0 SU (and 5-1 ATS) in his career against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Adding the Detroit Lions to this parlay is what brings the odds to a manageable -116 at 53.70% implied probability, considering its -520 moneyline odds at FanDuel are much cheaper than the next-best -550 odds. 

The Lions 17-3 SU (and 14-5-1 ATS) in their last 20 games, and are not in danger of losing to a Cincinnati Bengals squad that has lost by an average of 31.5 points over the last two weeks.

If Detroit and Kansas City both win outright, a $10 wager would net $8.62 in profits.

⬆️  Commanders-Chargers Over 47.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Washington Commanders defense is coming off a game where it allowed Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to average 12.0 yards per attempt, the third-most by a Falcons quarterback since 2000 (min. 20 attempts). 

Washington now allows the sixth-most passing yards per game, which does not bode well against a Los Angeles Chargers offense that averages an NFL-high 26.3 targets per game to wide receivers.

With Jayden Daniels back under center for the Commanders, I expect Los Angeles to have difficulty stopping Deebo Samuel. Samuel has 29.7% of the team’s receptions this year (eighth-most among wide receivers), and the Chargers allow the fourth-most yards to slot receivers and the fifth-most yards after the catch to wide receivers overall.

I am paying up slightly for the -115 odds and the accompanying 53.49% implied probability at DraftKings, as it is the only top sports betting site with an O/U lower than 48. A $10 winning wager would return $8.70 in profits.

⬇️  Buccaneers team total Under 20.5 (-113) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a significant total, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored at least 20 points in 19 consecutive games, including playoffs. But the Seattle Seahawks' defense is out to stop that streak, as it has allowed 20 or fewer points in all four games, and ranks fourth in scoring defense (16.8 points per game allowed).

The Seahawks are allowing the third-fewest yards per play (4.5). And they should be able to control time of possession again if quarterback Sam Darnold stays as efficient as he has been, with a 70% completion percentage and going 8-for-9 for 85 yards on third down last week.

The implied odds are as high as 54.13% through DraftKings’ price of -118. But the best value is through FanDuel’s -113 odds, where a $10 winning wager would net $8.85 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 5

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Cam Skattebo anytime touchdown scorer (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

New York Giants rookie running back Cam Skattebo has a 68.2% snap share since Week 3, up significantly from a 31.7% snap share in the first two weeks. 

Over the last three weeks, Skattebo has the third-most red zone carries of anyone in the league, and only Josh Jacobs has more goal-line carries.

This play is worth it for the value alone at bet365, as Skattebo’s anytime touchdown odds go up to -140 at 58.33% implied odds at the high end of the market. At the +100 price at FanDuel, a $10 wager would net the same as my initial investment in profits if Skattebo scores a touchdown for the third time in the last four games.

⬇️ A.J. Brown Under 61.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is my most confident five-star play and our best NFL player prop bet for Week 5, as Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown is coming off his third career game with more targets than receiving yards.

Brown’s 1.66 average yards of separation are the second-lowest among wide receivers (min. 20 targets). And while his 30% target share is the team’s highest, his 14 receptions are tied for second, and his 151 receiving yards do not even lead the team.

Optimists will point to Brown’s eight-plus targets in each of the last three games, while the Broncos have allowed the seventh-most targets to wide receivers. And even though Brown had nearly a 40% target share and 73% of the team’s air yards last week, all of that will be muted by Patrick Surtain’s shadow coverage as one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league.

The -115 odds at a 53.49% implied probability at BetMGM would net $8.70 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What are the best bets for NFL Week 5?

My best bets for NFL Week 5 are the Lions and Chiefs to cash a moneyline parlay, the Over in the Commanders-Chargers game, the Buccaneers team total Under, Cam Skattebo to score a touchdown, and A.J. Brown to go Under his receiving yards total.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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