NFL Best Bets for Week 4: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

After going 4-1 with our best bets last week including cashing all of our four- and five-star plays, we're back to continue the momentum with our NFL best bets for Week 4.

This week’s NFL picks follow a very similar template to last week, when I identified my best six-point teaser, full game total, team total, and top two player props. It's all part of our NFL predictions for Week 4.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 4

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Texans +1/Packers -0.5 six-point teaser (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Commanders-Falcons Under 45.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Giants team total Under 18.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ashton Jeanty Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Breece Hall anytime touchdown scorer (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐂 Texans +1/ 🧀 Packers -0.5 six-point teaser (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Texans are the first team since the 2004 Dolphins to lose each of their first three games while allowing 20 or fewer points in each contest. Houston is due for a significant win at home against a Titans team amid the longest active losing streak in the NFL (nine games), especially with quarterback Cam Ward being a limited participant in practices this week.

I'm buying low on Green Bay coming off a shocking upset loss to Cleveland as the second leg of this teaser for my best NFL predictions. The Cowboys' defense is nowhere near the same stratosphere as the Browns’ unit. And Dallas’ offense is not explosive enough to make up for the absence of CeeDee Lamb, especially if its defense continues to allow 6.5 yards per play (31st).  

I'm making this wager at Caesars with its 55.56% implied probability at -125 odds since it offers the best price and number on both point spreads before the six-point adjustment. If both favorites cover these lower spreads, a $10 winning wager would net $8 in profit.

Bet $1, Get Twenty 100% Profit Boosts

New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. bonus is twenty 100% Profit Boost tokens. Profit Boost tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. Full terms.    

Claim Boosts

⬇️ Commanders-Falcons Under 45.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Falcons became the first team in the last two seasons to not run a play inside an opponent’s 30-yard line when the Panthers shut them out last week. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. went 8-for-15 passing for 117 yards between the numbers. And Atlanta has scored two touchdowns on 10 drives inside the 30-yard line this season (an NFL worst).

Meanwhile, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is out, along with wide receiver Terry McLaurin., leaving Washington without a few significant weapons.

FanDuel is alone among the best sports betting apps while offering a total as high as 45.5 at less than the standard -110 juice to back the Under. Its -108 odds carry a 51.92% implied probability and would return $9.26 on a winning $10 wager.

Bet $5, Win $300 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Min. first deposit and wager of $5+. Bonus bets are awarded within 72 hours of winning your first wager. T&Cs apply.

Claim $300

⬇️ Giants team total Under 18.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Jaxson Dart era begins in New York as he takes the quarterback duties over from Russell Wilson, who was on pace to set the worst QBR mark from a Giants quarterback for a season since 2006 (34.0).

New York has scored fewer than 10 points in seven games since 2024, and no other team has logged more than three such games during that span. That doesn't sound like a problem a rookie quarterback making his first start can instantly solve. 

And the Chargers field the perfect foil for Malik Nabers in Derwin James Jr., who has allowed 10 receptions for 51 yards on 18 targets as the nearest defender this season.

The Giants’ implied odds to stay Under this team total are as high as 53.05% through FanDuel’s -113 price. But I'm maximizing more value through DraftKings’ -108 odds at the same number, as a winning $10 wager would net $9.26 in profits.

Bet $5, Get $300 in Bonus Bets + Over $200 Off NFL Sunday Ticket

21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in OR/NH. 1 per customer. $5+ first-time bet req. Get promo code to redeem NFL Sunday Ticket sub and max. $200 issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets; 7 day expiry.

Claim $400

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 4

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders: Over 65.5 rushing yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is in line for his best game as a pro when facing a banged-up Bears defense.

Jeanty has been averaging 2.8 yards per touch this season, the second-fewest among running backs. A shoddy offensive line is the most significant reason for that, as Jeanty is getting hit behind the line of scrimmage on over half of his carries.

But few running backs get more of an opportunity each week than Jeanty, as he's been getting the fifth-highest percentage of his team’s rushing attempts (66.2%). Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs, and the team has given up a league-high in yards before contact to the position. 

The implied odds for Jeanty to surpass this number are as high as 55.95% through Caesars’ -127 price. But the best return is through BetMGM’s standard -110 odds, which would net $9.09 in profit on a winning $10 wager.

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500

🔥 Breece Hall, RB, Jets: Anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

The Dolphins are the first team since the 2020 Falcons to have allowed 30-plus points in each of the first three games of a season. That increases all New York’s players’ anytime touchdown odds, and it's led to me backing one of its most reliable playmakers in my best NFL player prop bets of the week.

The Dolphins have allowed explosive runs to running backs at the fifth-highest rate. Breece Hall should also contribute plenty in the passing game, as his 16.3% target share ranks fifth among running backs, and the Dolphins have given up the third-most receiving yards to the position. 

These +110 anytime touchdown odds from DraftKings come with a 47.62% implied probability. There would be an $11 payout on a winning $10 wager if Hall scores his first touchdown of the season.

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What are the best bets for NFL Week 4?

My best bets for NFL Week 3 are the Texans and Packers to cover a six-point teaser, the Under in the Commanders-Falcons game, the Giants team total Under, Ashton Jeanty to go Over his rushing yards total, and Breece Hall to score a touchdown.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.