NFL Best Bets Week 3: Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

There are some interesting trends to know before placing any NFL best bets for Week 3, like the fact that favorites of at least 4.5 points were 12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS through the first two weeks of the season. Does that trend work its way into any of our NFL predictions for Week 3?

Among our top NFL picks are a six-point teaser involving two underdogs that we are moving to key betting numbers, the Under in a clash of AFC South rivals, and an undervalued wide receiver that is playing with a backup quarterback this week to score a touchdown. 

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 3

NFL best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Rams +10 / Browns +14.5 six-point teaser (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Texans-Jaguars Under 44.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Steelers team total Under 23.5 (-118 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tee Higgins anytime touchdown scorer (+230 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Jaxon Smith-Njibga Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest NFL scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐏 Rams +10 / 🐶 Browns +14.5 six-point teaser (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Eagles running back Saquon Barkley’s top two rushing totals of his career (255 and 205 yards) have both come against the Rams. But Los Angeles should be able to key in on him this week, with Jalen Hurts becoming the first Eagles quarterback with zero passing touchdowns through the first two weeks since Donovan McNabb in 2023. If the Rams can make the Eagles one-dimensional, they can rely on their fourth-ranked Pass Rush Win Rate.

The second leg of this parlay sides with the sharps, as Green Bay has received 70% of the early tickets at DraftKings, but the line has lowered from -9.5 to -8.5. 

The Packers offense will be somewhat compromised in the short-term after losing wide receiver Jayden Reed. And since 2017, teams that are 0-2 and are underdogs in Week 3 have covered 69% of the time in Week 3 (37-17 ATS) with a 32% ROI.

I am making this wager at BetMGM with its 56.52% implied probability at -130 odds since it is the only top sports betting site that takes the Rams to the key number of 10 after the six-point adjustment (all other sportsbooks are at Rams +3.5). If both ‘dogs cover these inflated spreads, a $10 winning wager would net $7.69 in profits.

⬇️ Texans-Jaguars Under 44.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games against Jacksonville. But with less confidence in the Texans after their 0-2 start, I am making a play on the Under as my best bet in this game, in particular because of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s struggles in this rivalry.

The Jaguars have 375-plus total yards in each of their first two games of a season for the first time since 2000. But the Texans are a tough matchup having intercepted 19 passes since 2024 (tied for second-most in the NFL). In addition, Lawrence has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in one of the last six games against Houston, and has more career interceptions than touchdowns in this matchup.

Lawrence has a QBR of 3.0 and averaged 3.5 yards per attempt when targeting Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., while C.J. Stroud has a 36 QBR and 46% completion percentage when targeting Nico Collins.

That makes the Under an appealing play, especially at FanDuel, which is the only best sports betting app charging less than the standard -110 juice at a 52.38% implied probability at an Under of 44.5. I am making this $10 wager before FanDuel aligns with other sportsbooks at 44 in the hopes of netting $9.52 in profits at the better number.

⬇️ Steelers team total Under 23.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Over is 3-1 between these two teams to this point, and has cashed in eight of the Patriots’ last nine home games following a road win. But Pittsburgh’s offensive line woes has me backing its offense to struggle once again after it scored just 17 points in a home loss last week.

The Steelers allowed pressure on 38% of dropbacks in Week 2, while Aaron Rodgers was sacked three times. That pressure limited Rodgers to a 4.7 yards per attempt average, and he fell to 1-13 in his career in games where he failed to exceed 4.8 yards per attempt.

New England’s nine sacks are the most from the franchise through the first two weeks since 2015, and a leaky Steelers defense should allow the Patriots to control time of possession.

The -118 odds at DraftKings return much better value than the -128 odds (carrying a 56.14% implied probability on the high end of the market). Through DraftKings’ best price, a winning $10 wager would return $8.47 in profits.

💰 Best NFL player prop bets for Week 3

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Tee Higgins anytime touchdown scorer (+230) ⭐⭐⭐

Many have soured on the Bengals offense now that backup quarterback Jake Browning is the starter in the wake of Joe Burrow’s injury. But Cincinnati’s coaching staff has always let Browning throw his fair share in his time as a starter, and Tee Higgins actually has outperformed teammate Ja’Marr Chase in those games.

Chase has played six games with Browning under center, and averaged 63.8 receiving yards per game while catching just one touchdown. Meanwhile, in five games played with Browning, Higgins has averaged 66.8 receiving yards per game and scored three receiving touchdowns.

Compared to Chase who has much shorter +125 anytime touchdown odds (carrying a 44.44% implied probability), there is great value through Higgins’ +230 odds at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would net $23 in profits.

⬆️ Jaxon Smith-Njibga Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is tied for third in the NFL in targets, is second in receptions (17), second in receiving yards (227), and is tied for fourth in receptions since 2024 (117). 

Smith-Njigba’s 44% target share is the best in the NFL, and his 57% of the team’s air yards is second only to Malik Nabers. This is a confident four-star play, as he has seen double-digit targets in both games, and is averaging 11 air yards per target. 

Meanwhile, the Saints allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers last year, which quells any doubts that game script for a heavy passing day may not work in Seattle’s favor.

Smith-Njigba’s O/U is as high as 71.5, and DraftKings is the only best sports betting app offering the standard -110 juice at a 52.38% implied probability at the lower total of 70.5. If Smith-Njibga records 71 or more receiving yards, my $10 winning wager would return $9.09 in profits.

❓ NFL betting FAQs

What are the best bets for NFL Week 3?

My best bets for NFL Week 3 are the Rams and Browns to cover a six-point teaser, the Under in the Texans-Jaguars game, the Steelers team total Under, Tee Higgins to score a touchdown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go Over his receiving yards total.

How do NFL odds work?

When betting on NFL odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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