NFL Best Bets for Week 16: ATS Predictions & Player Props

My NFL best bets for Week 16 have you covered for an exciting weekend of action, including a Saturday tilt that has first place in a division riding on the outcome.

Two heavy favorites, the Bills and Lions, comprise a rarely used moneyline parlay in my NFL predictions for Week 16. I also look to hit on a running back’s anytime touchdown prop at plus-money odds for the second consecutive week.

🏈 NFL best bets for Week 16

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 16 based on the latest NFL odds.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Bears +1 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Micah Parsons’ season-injury should not be understated for what it means for the Packers defense. Over the previous six games, Parsons alone had 30 quarterback pressures, a 20% pressure rate, 6.0 sacks, and 12 quarterback hits. In that span, all other Packers combined for 31 pressures, a 5% pressure rate, 5.0 sacks, and 19 quarterback hits.

When pressuring the quarterback this season, Green Bay’s defense has allowed a 25 Total QBR, 3.1 yards per play, a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and a 50% completion percentage. 

When the Packers don’t get pressure, they allow a 68 Total QBR (bottom 10 in the NFL), 6.5 yards per play, an 18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio (also bottom 10), and a 72% comp pct.

FanDuel charges a much higher -122 juice for an extra half-point at +1.5, so I will roll the dice for a push if Chicago loses by one to get the better -110 price.

Jaguars-Broncos Over 46.5 (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is coming off his third career game with 300 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That is tied with Jared Goff for the most such games in the NFL since 2024.

Nix completed six of 10 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown on throws at least 15 yards downfield. And against a stingy Packers defense, the Broncos averaged their third-highest yards per play total (6.0) of the season, while Nix’s 88 Total QBR and 8.9 yards per attempt were both season-highs.

Perhaps Denver found something to build off of in its last game, using no-huddle on a season-high 13 plays, and churning out 111 yards and 13.6 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence should not be fazed by Denver’s elite pass rush, as his 68 Total QBR when pressured over the last six games is the best among all quarterbacks in that span.

This O/U is as high as 47 at several of the best sports betting sites, while FanDuel is the only one charging less than -114 to back the Over at 46.5.

Bills + Lions moneyline parlay (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This parlay was centered around the fact that Detroit has won 15 straight games (and is 14-1 ATS) off a loss since November 2022, and another win this week would break the all-time record of straight-up wins after a loss. Overall while Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have been together, the Lions are 23-9 ATS off a loss.

Adding the Bills as a second leg to the parlay mitigates Denver’s steep moneyline odds. The Bills are not in danger of losing a road game to the Browns, especially since Josh Allen’s 28-9-1 ATS record against defenses that allow fewer than 20 points per game is the best among all quarterbacks since 2003.

💰 Best NFL player props for Week 16

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

Aaron Jones Sr. anytime touchdown scorer (+190) ⭐⭐⭐

Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. is coming off a sizable workload against an NFC East opponent last week, as he had 15 touches in the win over the Cowboys. He now faces a Giants defense that has allowed a league-high in yards per carry, yards before contact, and explosive run rate since Week 11.

Jones should also continue to benefit from quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s improved play. McCarthy has a passer rating of 100 or better in each of the last two games after totaling zero such games prior.

The +190 anytime touchdown odds offered at DraftKings trump the +155 odds on the low end of the market.

Emeka Egbuka Under 43.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka’s 64 receiving yards were his most in the last five games, and was also the only time in that span he surpassed this projected total.

Since Week 6, Egbuka has the lowest catchable target rate and the second-highest drop rate of any receiver in that span. And while it didn’t show last week, Egbuka now has much more competition for targets, as Mike Evans played only half the snaps and was still the top target last week, while Chris Godwin led the team in routes and snaps.

The -115 price is worth paying up for at BetMGM, as its O/U of 43.5 receiving yards is four yards higher than the 39.5 on the low end of the market.