NFL Best Bets for Christmas Day | ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Christmas Day take advantage of the familiarity with three games between divisional opponents to make my best ATS and O/U plays.

As part of my NFL Christmas Day predictions, I also back arguably the best wide receiver on the three-game Christmas Day slate to score a touchdown, and make the case for a star quarterback to throw his first interception in five games.

🏈 NFL best bets for Christmas Day

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔮 Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in [Week XX].

Commanders team total Over 20.5 (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It is looking more and more likely that Washington will have third-string Josh Johnson under center. But with both the Commanders and Cowboys eliminated from playoff contention, I envision both teams opening up their offenses with a “nothing to lose” attitude.

Despite entering last week with the 22nd-ranked schedule, Dallas still ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA, and is without one of its best cornerbacks (Daron Bland).

I am opting for Washington’s alternate team total at DraftKings, paying up slightly more for its -130 price and 56.52% implied odds to get a number better than the key number of 21.

Lions-Vikings Under 44.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

This total has come down two points from my initial early Lions vs. Vikings prediction, but this is still a confident three-star play even though some value is gone from my initial wager on Under 46.5.

Detroit finished last week with 15 rushing yards on 12 rush attempts, and averaged the fewest yards before contact per rush of any team in Week 16.

Detroit’s offensive line issues crossed over into pass protection as well, as Jared Goff was pressured on 30% of dropbacks. He finished 6-of-14 for 72 yards and three sacks when pressured.

Broncos first half spread -6.5 (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas City is just 1-7 ATS in games against teams over .500 this year. And that poor ATS record was compiled with Patrick Mahomes under center, which doesn’t bode well for third-string quarterback Chris Olaadokun’s chances.

Bo Nix is 16-2 SU in 18 career starts as a favorite. And I am not writing off the Broncos after having their 11-game winning streak snapped last week. That loss came at the expense of a red-hot Jaguars team that has now beaten four consecutive opponents by 14-plus points.

I am making this first-half play on Denver at anything less than the key number of seven, with Caesars offering the best price.

💰 Best NFL player props for Christmas Day

Search the best NFL player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

CeeDee Lamb player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has a knack for producing big games in the spotlight on national television. Two of Lamb’s three touchdowns this year have come on Thanksgiving and Monday Night Football, and he has averaged 115.5 receiving yards on 6.5 catches in two other Thursday games this season. 

Lamb has six touchdowns in his last six games against Washington, with at least one score in five of them. And with the Cowboys pegged for an implied team total of 29.5 points, he is a great bet to score one of the team’s four projected touchdowns in this matchup.

Lamb’s +120 anytime touchdown odds at DraftKings is a better value than the +114 odds at the the lower end of the market found at the best sports betting sites.

Jared Goff player prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Lions quarterback Jared Goff has struggled mightily when pressured this season. 

He has completed 38% of his passes, been off target on 33% of throws, and totaled a 0-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws under pressure, which are all his worst in five seasons with Detroit. That does not bode well for his chances of success against a blitz-happy Brian Flores defense.

Goff hasn’t thrown an interception in four straight, but considering four of his five-worst QBR totals have come within the last six games, I am banking on him throwing at least one pick amid this poor stretch of play.