NFL Against the Spread Picks for Week 6: Can Steelers Bounce Back?
Week 6 brings us two interesting teams coming off brutal blowout losses, as well as an underperforming Super Bowl contender. Check out our best NFL against the spread picks for Week 6.
The Pittsburgh Steelers suffered their worst loss in more than 30 years in Week 5, allowing Josh Allen to throw for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the first half. Things don’t get much easier for the black and gold this week, either, as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ride into town.
Will Pittsburgh put up a better fight and cover the big spread at home, or will the Steelers’ woes continue?
We break down that game and two others in our best against the spread NFL picks for Week 6 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet).
Week 6 NFL Against The Spread Picks
Top NFL Against the Spread Predictions
Steelers +8.5 (-110)
A tough defense has defined the Steelers for decades, but that unit took a huge hit last week when Pittsburgh was humiliated 38-3 in Buffalo. Expect a bounce-back effort from the Steelers as they return home to host the Bucs, whose offense has yet to fire on all cylinders this season.
Tampa Bay has scored more than 21 points just once in its first five games, and that one time came against Kansas City when the Bucs were in catch-up mode after falling behind 21-3 early in the second quarter.
Prior to the ugly outing against the Bills, Pittsburgh held each of its first four opponents to 24 points or less (excluding its Week 3 loss in Cleveland, when the Browns scored a last-second touchdown on a fumble in the Pittsburgh end zone), so this Steelers defense isn’t nearly as bad as it looked last week.
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett made some mistakes in his first career start against the Bills, but Pittsburgh still managed to gain 23 first downs and 364 total yards against a stout Buffalo defense.
If Pickett can engineer just a couple of touchdown drives, that should be enough for Pittsburgh to stay inside this big number and improve to 19-6-4 ATS in its last 29 as a home underdog.
Bengals -1.5 (-110)
If you buy into the curse of the Super Bowl loser, you aren’t surprised to see the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals off to a 2-3 start. But Cincinnati could also easily be 5-0 if it had caught a few breaks, suffering all three of its losses on the final play of the game.
After allowing 13 sacks in the first two weeks, Cincy’s offensive line has played a lot better in the last three and should be able to protect Joe Burrow pretty well against a New Orleans Saints line that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass-rush win rate.
The Saints allowed 32 points last week to the Seahawks, the fifth time in as many games that they’ve given up 20-plus, and the third time they’ve allowed at least 26.
The Bengals’ underrated defense should be able to take it the rest of the way. Cincinnati has yet to allow more than 20 points in regulation, and the Bengals’ ability to stop the run matches up well against a Saints attack that is designed to run the football.
Expect Cincy to cover the spread for the eighth time in its last nine road outings.
Dolphins +3 (-107)
With the uncertainty surrounding who will be Miami’s starting quarterback in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa, oddsmakers have made the Dolphins 3-point home underdogs - quite the adjustment from the 1-point chalk Miami was on the lookahead lines.
This spread will certainly shorten if Teddy Bridgewater is cleared to play after suffering a concussion last week against the Jets, and it will likely climb if third-stringer Skylar Thompson has to make his first career start.
Regardless of whether Bridgewater or Thompson plays, I’m more interested in fading a Minnesota Vikings team that hasn’t proven it’s worthy of laying a field goal on the road.
Although Minnesota is 4-1 on the season, the Vikings have covered the spread in just one of those five games, needing a late touchdown last week to rally for a seven-point win at home over the Bears as 10-point chalk.
Minny is also 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 2-5 ATS in its last seven when favored by three or more as the visitor.
Where to Bet on NFL Against the Spread Picks
NFL against the spread picks made 10/12/2022 at 10:54 a.m. ET
