49ers vs. Bears Week 1 NFL Picks: Can Trey Lance Lead Road Favorites to Victory?
The Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday afternoon in NFL Week 1 action. Here’s a look at the odds and trends ahead of this NFC matchup, along with our 49ers-Bears picks.
Trey Lance makes his debut as San Francisco’s starting quarterback. Sunday’s contest marks just the third career start for Lance, who takes over the reins of the Niners offense from veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. The Bears return to action looking to atone after producing just one win in their final six home contests of 2021.
The 49ers claimed a 33-22 victory when they visited Soldier Field in Week 8 last season, and have won three out of the last five versus the Bears, with each of those victories coming in Chicago.
Here are our top 49ers-Bears NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via Pointsbet and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Bears Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Weather: Rain, 75 degrees, 80% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds gusting up to 18 mph
49ers vs. Bears Odds Analysis
The betting line opened early in the offseason with the 49ers widely pegged as 6.5-point chalk favorites, and climbed as high as -7.5 before settling back to -7 at most of our top-rated sportsbooks.
The Bears have faded on the moneyline since opening as +210 underdogs, dipping to +250 at PointsBet. However, Bears backers can find the team sporting moneyline odds as long as +265 via DraftKings.
A steady 6-2-0 run for the Under when the Bears played at home last season has not been overlooked on Sunday’s odds. The total has opened as high as 43 at Caesars, with most sportsbooks now offering a total of 40.5. However, NFL betting fans looking to chase the Over should check out DraftKings, which has pegged the number at 40.
49ers vs. Bears Picks
49ers vs. Bears ATS Pick
49ers -6.5 (-107) ★★★★
Lance showed flashes of his vast potential in limited preseason action, impressing with a 92-yard, one-touchdown performance in the team’s 28-21 win over the Green Bay Packers. He also represents a serious rushing threat, which he demonstrated with 1,100 rushing yards while leading North Dakota State to the 2020 FCS national title. In addition, last season’s team rushing leader Elijah Mitchell is set to return after being removed from the 49ers' injury report on Wednesday.
Bears QB Justin Fields faces a much tougher task. With rookie receiver Velus Jones Jr.’s status for Sunday uncertain, things have gone from bad to worse for a Chicago receiving corps already missing offseason additions David Moore, N’Keal Harry, and Tajae Sharpe.
49ers vs. Bears O/U Pick
Under 40.5 (-110) ★★★★
A combination of injuries, a stout Bears defense, and the high probability of rain are all factors in betting the Under. Sure, both quarterbacks have a lot to prove. However, with the Bears’ receiving corps depth currently impacted by injuries, and the Niners' offensive line unlikely to provide Lance with many opportunities to establish aerial dominance, expect points to come at a premium.
49ers vs. Bears Prop Pick
Lance Over 40.5 rushing yards (+100) ★★★
The 49ers had little answer to the Arizona Cardinals’ stingy defensive effort on their way to a 17-10 loss in Lance’s first career start last season. However, Lance demonstrated his scrambling ability in that contest, running for a game-high 89 yards.
Faced with the potential for wet weather and a Bears pass defense that ranked third in the NFL last season, look for Lance to be a regular ball carrier on Sunday.
Where to Bet on 49ers vs. Bears Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
49ers-Bears picks made 9/8/2022 at 10 a.m. ET
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