NFL Draft Prediction Markets: Why Picks No. 2 & No. 3 Are Wide Open

The 2026 NFL Draft isn't until April 23 in Pittsburgh, and while there's little mystery surrounding what will happen with the No. 1 pick, the NFL draft prediction markets highlight how unclear the No. 2 and No. 3 picks are at this point.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is projected to be selected No. 1 by the Las Vegas Raiders, but Polymarket's NFL draft prediction markets show that there's no consensus on what will happen when the New York Jets (No. 2) and Arizona Cardinals (No. 3) are on the clock.

🎰 NFL draft prediction market: Mendoza is set to join Tom Brady in Las Vegas  

The Las Vegas Raiders hold the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Implied probability shows the market’s confidence that each player will be selected for this pick. In multi-player markets, percentages reflect the share of total ‘Yes’ interest; totals may not equal 100%.

Mendoza to the Raiders seems inevitable

Not only did Mendoza lead Indiana to the most improbable national championship in college football history, but he also won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in the country. Given the Raiders' reset with the firing of Pete Carroll, it would shock the world if GM John Spytek passed on the best QB in the class.

Geno Smith is turning 36 and just led the NFL in interceptions (17), and at this point, part-owner Tom Brady is probably a better option to roll out under center. So, regardless of who Mark Davis, Spytek, and Brady opted to hire as head coach, the first name called him Pittsburgh this April will be "Fernando Mendoza."

Polymarket's got Mendoza labeled at 93% confidence he'll go No. 1, and I think it's more likely that this market is pulled by March than that number dropping down.

🔥 NFL draft prediction market: Bain surging to top of No. 2 market

The New York Jets hold the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Could Rueben Bain Jr. end up in the Big Apple?

This is an interesting market because the Jets are desperate for a QB, but there isn't one worth taking No. 2, especially with Oregon's Dante Moore returning for another collegiate season.

With Aaron Glenn's defensive background and the front office shipping off two of the team's top defensive players during the season, New York is expected to take the best defender available.

After the performance Miami's Rueben Bain Jr. put on during the Hurricanes' run to the national championship, eight TFLs and five sacks in four CFP games, the pass rusher sits atop the prediction market to be the No. 2 pick.  

Despite Bain leading the country in pressures (83), ranking top 10 in pass rush win rate (23.5%), and racking up 15.5 TFLs and 9.5 sacks, his arm length is a question. It's been reported that his arms are under 31 inches, a far cry from the 33-plus-inch arms most scouts desire in a pass rusher. 

Bain just announced he's heading to the Senior Bowl, so we should get official measurements soon, but I'd avoid buying in on him going No. 2. Still, he's clearly a top-five player in this class.

Reese poised to fly at combine and propel himself to No. 2

While I don't think NFL teams should get caught up in the arm length of a player as dominant as Bain, we know the NFL draft is drive by traits. So between Bain's arm length and how well Arvell Reese is expected to performa at the NFL Scouting Combine, the Ohio State linebacker is the player I'm predicting to go No. 2.

Reese is a freak athlete who checks all the physical boxes. He's reportedly 6-foot-4, 240-plus pounds with 34-inch arms and there's a chance he could run a sub-4.5 40-yard dash. 

Though he rushed the passer in a limited capacity in Matt Patricia's defense at Ohio State, he was impactful when he pinned his ears back (27 pressures, 6.5 sacks). Plus, he's a violent run defender and capable of dropping into coverage.

He's going to be compared to Micah Parsons a lot over the next few months. 

❓ NFL draft prediction market: Beck up top speaks to the uncertainty of pick No. 3

The Arizona Cardinals hold the No. 3 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Beck No. 3 to the Cardinals? He's not even going on Day 1 

Let's not dance around this ... Carson Beck being atop the prediction markets to go No. 3 is a flat out joke. Anyone who has seen him play knows he's not a first-round prospect, let alone a top 10 pick.

Beck's a polarizing player with a complicated college legacy, and I'm sure he could end up being a third-round pick if a front office or coaching staff is desperate. But seeing his name linked to the No. 3 pick makes me feel like I'm being punk'd.

The sixth-year senior is interception prone (24 interceptions the last two seasons) and doesn't have the arm talent to be a franchise QB. I can promise you Arizona Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort isn't taking Beck No. 3, and if he told coaching candidates he was, nobody would take this job.

Cardinals' coaching hire will be key to this market

Arizona has so many needs and hasn't hired a head coach yet. Depending on what direction Ossenfort goes could provide a hint as to what the Cardinals plan to do when they're picking No. 3 in April.

Beck is obviously not the choice, but almost any top pass rusher or offensive lineman could be the pick. This could be a landing spot for Bain (or Reese if he doesn't go No. 2), but I tend to think the pick will be an offensive lineman.

Last year, Arizona used its first five picks on defensive players, neglecting several needs on offense. This year, Ossenfort will likely want to spend a little more draft capital setting up his roster for whichever QB they hope to select in 2027 (especially if Arizona hires an offensive head coach).

One of the Cardinals' biggest needs is right tackle, and Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa just helped Miami bully its way to a national championship berth. He would make a lot of sense here and is viewed as one of the safest players in the class.

Mauigoa is listed at Polymarket with yes at 13.9 cents, no at 98.8 cents, and an 8% probability of being the No. 3 pick. He would be my prediction this far out.