🏀 Wright State vs. Virginia Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 20)
No. 3 Virginia will look to use its high-powered offense to move past No. 14 Wright State, a team looking for its first NCAA Tournament win as a Division I program.
My best Wright State vs. Virginia prediction focuses on the offensive firepower both teams bring to March Madness. Both are averaging over 80 points per game, setting up a high-scoring 1:50 p.m. ET (TBS/March Madness Live) matchup at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia. Virginia is favored by 18.5.
For more NCAA Tournament picks, check out our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Wright State vs. Virginia picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wright State +18.5 | -110 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.46u | ⭐ |
| Over 145.5 | -110 via bet365 | 2.5u -> 2.28u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points | -105 via bet365 | 2u -> 1.94u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.68 units
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🏆 Who will win Wright State vs. Virginia?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Virginia will win by 18 points because these two teams play a similar offense-first style of basketball, and Virginia simply executes at a higher rate and is allowing just 68.4 points per game.
Score prediction: Virginia 88, Wright State 70
💰 Wright State vs. Virginia prediction & best bet
Over 145.5 (-110)
Virginia is averaging 80.6 points per game this season, and in 13 nonconference games, the Cavaliers scored at least 80 points 11 times. Against non-power conference opponents, Virginia averaged 88.3 points per game. Additionally, according to KenPom, Wright State ranks 193rd in adjusted defensive efficiency.
But Virginia can't do all the scoring alone. Thankfully, Wright State is averaging 80.7 points per game. The Raiders rank 30th in the country in shooting percentage (48.8%), so they should be able to at least partially overcome this brutal matchup against the nation's 13th-best shooting defense.
🔥 Best Wright State vs. Virginia player prop bet
Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points (-105)
De Ridder is Virginia's leading scorer, averaging 15.5 points per game. However, this wager has more to do with how De Ridder scores than how much he scores.
De Ridder has only made 35 3-pointers all season, attempting just 103. He ranks fifth on Virginia in each category. But Wright State is allowing just 20.2 points per game from 3-pointers, which ranks 57th in the nation. However, the Raiders are allowing opponents to score 40.8 points from inside the arc, which ranks 323rd in the country.
This is a matchup tailor-made for De Ridder, and since I expect Virginia to score nearly 90 points, the team's leading scorer should top his season average by at least one point.
🚀 Wright State vs. Virginia same-game parlay
De Ridder will do most of the work to get this game beyond the posted total of 145.5. And while I'm confident in De Ridder and the entire Virginia offense, I'm a little concerned that Wright State could hang around, especially late when the game is out of reach. If this number grows to 20.5 or more, then I'll be much more confident in this three-leg parlay.
💵 Wright State vs. Virginia SGP picks
- Wright State +18.5
- Over 145.5
- Thijs De Ridder Over 16.5 points
Best odds: +612 via bet365 (0.5u -> 3.06u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-14 | +1.09 units ✅ | +3.6% ✅ |
| Game picks | 6-8 | -1.83 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 2-2 | -0.87 units ❌ | -13.3% ❌ |
| Parlays | 2-4 | +3.79 units ✅ | +75.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Wright State vs. Virginia: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
These teams both score at such a high rate that I would be shocked if Over 145.5 doesn't hit. The 2.5 unit play is one of my biggest of the first round, and De Ridder scoring at least 17 points isn't far behind, as he's being incredibly undervalued in a fantastic matchup. The only play I'm not very confident in is Wright State against the spread, but I love what I'm seeing from these other wagers so much that I'm willing to risk a little in a less confident spot.
For more about how Virginia stacks up against Wright State and other teams in the field, check out the latest March Madness betting trends.
📊 Live Wright State vs. Virginia odds: March Madness Round 1
Virginia opened as a 16.5-point favorite, and the spread has grown to 18.5. I hope this number climbs to 20.5, because then Wright State becomes a full one-unit play for me, but momentum has slowed for Virginia since the odds were announced. As for the total, it opened at 146.5, and it has dropped to 145.5. This must have more to do with how Virginia has historically played and less to do with who they are this season. Since I love Over 145.5 so much, I'll wait a bit and see if I can get an even better number tipoff.
📈 Wright State vs. Virginia betting trends
| Wright State | Statistic | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| 23-11 | Record | 29-5 |
| 19-13 | ATS record | 17-15-2 |
| 15-17 | O/U record | 15-19 |
| 140th | KenPom ranking | 13th |
| 112.1 (117th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 122.5 (27th) |
| 110.0 (193rd) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 95.8 (16th) |
📺 How to watch Wright State vs. Virginia: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 1:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena (Philadelphia)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
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