Wooden Award Odds: Cameron Boozer Leads Historically Dominant Freshman Class

With the college basketball season past its midway point and March Madness on the horizon, the story of the season has been the freshman class, especially with a first-year player running away in the Wooden Award odds race.

Duke's Cameron Boozer has been the best player in college basketball through the first three months, but he's not alone. Plenty of freshman phenoms have sprouted up across the country, and Boozer's biggest competition for the Wooden is a pair of fellow first-year players.

🏀 Wooden Award odds: Freshmen in the top 10

Six freshman are among the top 10 favorites in the Wooden Award odds.

😈 The case for and against Cameron Boozer (-650)

Just four freshmen have won the Wooden Award before (Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Zion Williamson, and Cooper Flagg).

The case for betting Boozer

It's hard to deny that Boozer, the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, has been the best player in the country since the jump.

In just Duke's second game against a ranked opponent, all the way back in November, he dropped 35 on Arkansas and shot 72.2% from the floor. And since then, he hasn't slowed down, regardless of the competition.

Boozer has Duke among the March Madness odds favorites and is averaging 23.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 4.2 APG in eight games against teams ranked in the top 25. He's rated No. 1 by pretty much every metric, sitting atop the ratings by KenPom, EvanMiya, and Bart Torvik.

And though just four freshmen have won the Wooden Award, Boozer's numbers are right there with theirs, and in some cases, his numbers are even better. 

So, why bet Boozer at such a short price? Because he's going to win the award.

The case against betting Boozer

It's hard to make a case against Boozer with the way he's playing, still, these odds are too short given what we've seen from other contenders.

For added context, at this time last year, Flagg's odds were still plus-money as he and Auburn's Johni Broome jockeyed for position atop the board. 

Just this past Saturday, BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa put up 43 points. And then he followed it up with 24 in a last-second loss to undefeated No. 1 Arizona. And Dybantsa isn't the only freshman heating up.

Both Houston's Kingston Flemings and Illinois' Keaton Wagler lit the scoreboard up this past Saturday, too, each having 40-plus-point performances of their own on a historic day for freshmen.

Plus, when Kansas' Darryn Peterson is healthy enough to play, you don't have to squint to understand why he's the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft by so many pundits.

The case against Boozer has less to do with him and more to do with how strong this freshman class has been as a whole. And with so much season left, it's not lunacy to believe another frosh could unseat the Duke star.

🚀 The "freshman takeover" narrative

15 freshmen are ranked in the top 100 players this season by EvanMiya's BPR metric:

Since the Wooden began being awarded in 1977, it's gone to an upperclassman (junior or senior) 39 times, a sophomore six times, and to a freshman four times. And though it's been dominated by older players in the past, that's changed in the one-and-done era.

Since Elton Brand became the first underclassman (freshman or sophomore) to win the Wooden in 1999, an underclassman has won the award 10 out of the last 27 years (37%). In the last seven years, an underclassman has won it three times (42.9%).

If you dig deeper, in the last seven years, the only non-underclassmen to win the award were centers (Luka Garza, Oscar Tshiebwe, and Zach Edey twice). Older, bigger, and stronger players who dominated down low but were never viewed as All-NBA talents.

But times have changed in college basketball, with freshmen who are NBA-ready hitting the ground running. So, unless there's an oversized big man or it's a weak recruiting class (like 2022 and 2023), this award is likely to continue having freshmen in the race.

I believe so strongly in this change that not only do I think more and more five-star freshmen who are projected to be top 10 picks are going to win it, but I'd wager that more freshmen win the Wooden in the next decade than upperclassmen. 

💰 Finding value: A freshman to bet other than Boozer

This is Boozer's award to lose, but basketball is unpredictable, and it's clear that this freshman class is special, with upwards of eight frosh expected to go in the top 10 picks of the upcoming NBA draft.

And while it's often been Dybantsa, Peterson, and Boozer projected as the top three picks, I think another freshman is the best bet at this point to challenge for the Wooden Award.

Kingston Flemings, Houston (+4000)

Yes, Dybantsa leads the country in PPG (23.6) and is right there with Peterson as the potential No. 1 pick in the draft, but team success matters and BYU is 1-3 against ranked opponents.

Meanwhile, Houston, the runner-up in last year's NCAA Tournament, is beginning to turn the keys over to Flemings. Since mid-December, Flemings has averaged 20.7 PPG and six APG while playing for a Kelvin Sampson team that's top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Despite Houston taking a step back this season, the Cougars are still ranked top 10 in the country and 3-2 against top 25 teams. In those five games against ranked opponents, Flemings is averaging 26.6 PPG. 

He's also the only player in the country to be credited with more game MVPs this season (14) than Boozer (13) by KenPom. That alone should have him priced closer to +2000 at our best March Madness betting sites.

If I'm betting on any player other than Boozer at this point, it's the freshman that Sampson of all coaches is leaning on.

🍼 Other freshmen making noise

It isn't just future NBA players suiting up for NCAA Tournament favorites that are making an impact in their first-year, there are freshman all over the country playing key roles.

📊 Live Wooden Award odds 2026

Our Wooden Award odds update in real time based on the latest college basketball odds.