🏀 West Virginia vs. TCU Prediction & Odds: Women's College Basketball Picks Today (March 8)

No. 10 TCU will look to pick up its third win of the season over No. 15 West Virginia in the Big 12 title game, with an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament on the line.

My best West Virginia vs. TCU prediction for today's 5 p.m. ET (ESPN) game at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., highlights how much oddsmakers are overvaluing the offenses in this game. TCU is favored by 3.5, but my final score prediction is more focused on a total that is set nearly 10 points higher than it should be.

🏀 West Virginia vs. TCU picks & odds today: March 8

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 5.38 units

💰 West Virginia vs. TCU prediction & best bet

Under 128.5 (-110)

I don't understand this total at all. These two teams have met twice this year, and neither has scored more than 59 points in either game. The first meeting featured just 101 points, and the second featured 109.

TCU boasts the 14th-ranked defense, allowing just 56.2 points per game. And West Virginia isn't far behind, allowing just 58.3 per contest. TCU has held two of its last three opponents to 53 points or fewer, while West Virginia has limited seven consecutive opponents to 62 or fewer. 

DraftKings is offering Under 128.5 for -110. I'd play this as low as 120.5.

Score prediction: TCU 61, West Virginia 55

🔥 Best West Virginia vs. TCU team prop bet

West Virginia Under 62.5 (-115)

West Virginia is averaging 76.7 points per game, but the Mountaineers have yet to score more than 50 against TCU this season.

Even more worrisome is West Virginia's offensive performance yesterday. West Virginia scored just 48 points in its win over Colorado, a team that allowed over 60 points per game this season. Now playing in their third game in as many days, I don't see how the Mountaineers suddenly score 13 more points than they have against TCU this season. After all, TCU has held five of its last seven opponents to 62 points or fewer.

FanDuel is offering Under 63.5 for -122, but I'd rather take one less point for a better price, as I could see West Virginia scoring in the mid-50s today.

🚀 West Virginia vs. TCU same-game parlay

I'd take this Under as low as 120.5, so if an alternate line comes out, don't be afraid to play it and really increase the value of this parlay. With the Under a lock in my eyes, this simply comes down to whether TCU can win by at least four. TCU has dominated competition in the Big 12 Tournament, winning both games by at least 12, so I'll back the Horned Frogs against a team that can't score against them.

💡 How I'm betting West Virginia vs. TCU

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

I love this Under, which is why I'm wagering more units than usual on this game. Don't focus on what these teams have done against other schools; focus on what the squads have done against each other. It's obvious that both teams are going to struggle, especially West Virginia, which won't get anywhere near 60 points. I'm the least confident in TCU covering, but if the Horned Frogs hold West Virginia to 50 again, they're going to win by at least four.

📊 Live West Virginia vs. TCU odds

TCU opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the Horned Frogs are now favored by 3.5. I'm not surprised the public loves TCU after two dominant Big 12 wins, but I don't expect this number to climb north of 4.5.

The total hasn't moved, but I expect it to drop. It feels like oddsmakers simply took the average of how many points per game each team scores and allows rather than actually looking at the history between these two. If it doesn't drop, take advantage of this gift of a line.

📈 West Virginia vs. TCU betting trends

📺 How to watch West Virginia vs. TCU

• Date: Sunday, March 8
• Tipoff: 5 p.m. ET
• Location: T-Mobile Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: ESPN