Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Prediction, Odds & Preview Today: Best Picks for Feb. 3

In an ACC matchup between two programs with very different approaches, Pittsburgh (14-7) hosts Virginia (10-12) tonight at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Petersen Events Center in Pittsburgh.
Our Virginia vs. Pittsburgh prediction and odds expect the Panthers' offense to carry the load as a 12.5-point favorite thanks to the high-flying play of Jaland Lowe.
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh predictions today
College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites.
- Against the spread pick: Pittsburgh -12.5 (-113 via BetRivers) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Jaland Lowe Over 17.5 points (-105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh ATS prediction
Pittsburgh to cover the spread: -12.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Cleary Tony Bennett's abrupt retirement just before the season has immensely impacted Virginia. The program is on pace for its first losing season since 2009-10 and sits 9-13 ATS. While Bennett's defense-first mentality remains with Ron Sanchez as the Cavaliers' bench boss, UVA is still just 127th in adjusted defensive efficiency and is benefitting from ranking 362nd in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
So, even though this defense allows just 65.2 PPG, it has more to do with how slow its offense is than with actual strong defensive play. This is part of the reason the Cavs' offense is borderline unwatchable: It is 360th in PPG (63.3), 174th in adjusted efficiency, and second-last in the ACC in O-Rate, per EvanMiya.
With an offense that's slower than Luka Doncic after a cheeseburger, Virginia isn't built to keep it close with a Pitt offense that's 18th in adjusted efficiency and putting up 79.6 PPG. With Lowe, Zack Austin, and Ishmael Leggett, Jeff Capel has three players capable of pushing the pace and getting to the line.
While the Panthers' defense is far from dominant - 70.9 PPG allowed - it just needs to be competent to stop such an ugly Virginia offense. If the Panthers can cover, a $10 bet pays an $8.85 profit.
Best odds: -113 via BetRivers | Implied probability: 53.05%
Best Virginia vs. Pittsburgh pick
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Jaland Lowe Over 17.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Only two players in the ACC are averaging 17-plus PPG, four-plus APG, and four-plus RPG. One is Wooden Award odds leader Cooper Flagg, and the other is Lowe, who ranks in the top 50 in the country in OBPR.
The sophomore has been a problem for defenses this season and has taken his game up a notch in ACC play - he's averaging 17.4 PPG this year, but 18.5 against conference opponents. With Lowe being the catalyst for this offense, Capel rarely takes him off the court, he leads the ACC in MPG (35.7) and it's jumped up to 37.9 MPG in conference play.
With his sheer volume, Lowe should be capable of scoring on this Virginia defense, even with the game pace slowed down. If he goes Over 17.5 points for the 13th time this year, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
Live Virginia vs. Pittsburgh odds
See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh opening odds
- Spread: Virginia +12.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh -12.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia +525 | Pittsburgh -750
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh game info
- When: Monday, Feb. 3
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Petersen Events Center (Pittsburgh)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Pittsburgh -12.5 (-113 via BetRivers)
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