🏀 VCU vs. North Carolina Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 19)
A Caleb Wilson-less North Carolina Tar Heels team looks vulnerable against the Atlantic 10 champion VCU Rams on Thursday. Tipoff for this matchup between No. 6 UNC and No. 10 VCU at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., is set for 6:50 p.m. ET (TNT).
The Tar Heels are just a 2.5-point betting favorite in a March Madness game that has “upset” written all over it, according to my VCU vs. North Carolina prediction. The Rams are a deservedly popular underdog in our March Madness predictions.
🏀 VCU vs. North Carolina picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU moneyline | +130 via Caesars | 1u -> 1.3u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| VCU Over 75.5 points | -120 via DraftKings | 0.5u -> 0.42u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Terrence Hill Jr. Under 15.5 points | -120 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.83u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.55 units
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🏆 Who will win VCU vs. North Carolina?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm predicting VCU will upset North Carolina, winning by three points in Thursday's Round 1 matchup. Since Wilson has been sidelined over the past month, the Rams have simply been better than the Tar Heels. That provides a more accurate snapshot of what to expect in this matchup, as opposed to the full-season metrics.
Score prediction: VCU 78, North Carolina 75
💰 VCU vs. North Carolina prediction & best bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
VCU moneyline (+130)
The data says that VCU is the better team in this matchup, as North Carolina is without its best player. According to Bart Torvik's ratings, North Carolina ranks No. 38 overall and has gone 5-3 over its last eight games. The Tar Heels are 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
In comparison, the Rams rank 31st overall with a 9-1 record during that same stretch. They are 46th on offense and 41st on defense.
If anything, this game should probably be priced as a coin-flip. I'll take the plus-money price on the better team, particularly with the +130 value at Caesars.
🏀 More March Madness picks for Thursday
Our Mike Spector backs Illinois -24.5 (-110) with his Penn vs. Illinois prediction and Gonzaga first half -10.5 (-120) with his Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga prediction.
🔥 Best VCU vs. North Carolina player prop bet
Our March Madness betting trends break down which coaches have been the most profitable in the NCAA Tournament.
Terrence Hill Jr. Under 15.5 points (-120)
VCU guard Terrence Hill Jr. has the highest scoring line on his team after an impressive showing in the A10 tourney. He scored 52 points in three games to help the Rams secure a conference title.
But what if I told you that he doesn't even start for VCU? That's right, Hill has only started two games (Feb. 14 and Feb. 3) all year, scoring a combined 26 total points in those contests. Now, he plays a lot as a reserve, but this seems like a high line considering North Carolina's personnel. And the fact that Hill has only cleared this scoring line in 14 of his 34 outings.
This line is as low as 14.5 at FanDuel, so I'm grabbing the bargain at bet365.
🚀 VCU vs. North Carolina same-game parlay
Given bet365 offers the best price on Hill's scoring line, playing my VCU vs. North Carolina parlay there was an easy decision. Interestingly, Hill's scoring line is an outlier leg compared to the other two plays, so I think it has led to a juicy +600 payout.
💵 VCU vs. North Carolina SGP picks
- VCU moneyline
- VCU Over 75.5 points
- Terrence Hill Jr. Under 15.5 points
Best odds: +600 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.6u)
💡 How I'm betting VCU vs. North Carolina: March Madness strategy
Sometimes we overrate recent form when betting on March Madness. A hot team coming off a conference tournament title is almost always a candidate to be advanced further than expected in a bracket challenge before inevitably suffering an early upset. Cough, something about St. John's, cough.
Excuse me.
But I don't believe that's what it is happening here. North Carolina's recent form is more real, considering this has been the version without its best player. VCU is the hot team coming off a tourney title, but I'm not going crazy by advancing the Rams deep into the tournament.
I believe VCU has a slight edge as the superior team, but it isn't being priced that way. So, I'm betting accordingly.
📊 Live VCU vs. North Carolina odds: March Madness First Round
North Carolina opened as a 2.5-point favorite, which is where the line remains as of this writing. The total has dropped from 154.5 to 153.5.
I'm expecting the Rams to be a popular underdog, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop a bit before tipoff. The total feels about right, though, so I don't expect much movement.
📈 VCU vs. North Carolina betting trends
| VCU | Statistic | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| 27-7 | Record | 24-8 |
| 17-17 | ATS record | 19-13 |
| 15-19 | O/U record | 14-18 |
| 45th | KenPom ranking | 29th |
| 119.9 (46th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 121.4 (32nd) |
| 102.7 (60th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 100.5 (37th) |
📺 How to watch VCU vs. North Carolina: March Madness First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 6:50 p.m. ET
- Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: HBO Max
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